We can therefore have a point in the bank after two matches, a negative goal difference and finally be quite calm when aiming for qualification for the round of 16 of the European Championship in Germany. Even when we are a “small selection” like Georgia or a team in decline like the Czech Republic has been for years. This is the magic of a 24-player Euro, which selects 16 teams for its first direct elimination round.
OK, it’s down to a Georgian feat during this last round of the group stage (see box), but everything is still possible behind a Portugal which will not deprive itself of the luxury of turning against the troops of Frenchman Willy Sagnol . In the other match of the evening, the Czechs and Turks will play a sort of round of 16, at the start of which Turkey would have a one-goal lead. A possible handicap, especially given the number of self-goals in this tournament so far (7).
Honestly, given the start of the competition, we would easily put a coin on Vincenzo Montella’s men. Because the former Italian surface fox has at his disposal a magnificent new generation and some thrilling players. As a bonus, she will play almost at home this Wednesday, in the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg. A city where 45,750 Turks had been recorded as of December 31, 2023, the equivalent of much more than Friborg as a whole in a city of 1.85 million inhabitants.
The different possibilities
– Portugal is sure to finish 1st in the group, thanks to its victory against Turkey.
– Turkey needs a point to qualify. She will finish 2nd if she wins or draws. She can finish in the top 2 if she loses, because if Georgia loses or draws, she will finish 3rd and should go through with 3 points. If she loses and Georgia wins, she will finish last.
– Czechia must win to have a chance of advancing. If she wins and Georgia wins too, both teams will be tied on points and everything will be decided on goal difference, but both will go through. If it wins and Georgia draws or loses, Czechia will be 2nd.
– Georgia must win to have a chance of advancing. If she wins and the Czech Republic does too, 2nd place will be decided by goal difference. If Georgia falls behind, the top 2 will be decided on fair play points (currently -5 for Georgia and -6 for the Czechia). In the event of a tie, place in the UEFA ranking (Czechia 17th and Georgia 34th). If Georgia wins and Czechia draws or loses, Georgia will finish 3rd and advance with 4 points.
“Frankly, the support of our fans is so important…, breathed Irfan Can Kahveci, the Fenerbahce midfielder who had to abandon the tournament just before the start of hostilities. We felt it during the first match of this Euro (editor’s note: won 3-1 against Georgia). When we were in the hole, they helped us get up. I hope they will take us even higher in this match against the Czechs.”
His teammates will remember the incredible 3-2 win at Euro 2008, at the Stade de la Praille in Geneva. Within three minutes, at the time, we almost reached… penalties to determine the qualifier, even in the group stage. The two teams were perfectly tied following Nihat’s improbable equalizer in the 87th minute, while the Turks were still two lengths behind at the hour mark.
Same number of points, same goal difference (-1), same number of goals scored (2)… It was going to take a first in history to decide between the two teams, in a group where Switzerland, at home , had cracked. But Nihat, again, made it 3-2 in the 89th minute. “We had achieved the impossible that day,” smiled legend Hamit Altintop on the UEFA website. After an hour and a quarter of play, everyone thought we were dead. In reality, we had just been resurrected!”
Heart patients will hope that the scenario will be simpler this Wednesday. Considering the different possibilities, it should be fine. Hamburg cardiologists can take a day off.
