LThe legislative elections resulted in a face-off between the New Popular Front (NFP) and the President of the Republic, awaiting the appointment of a Prime Minister who would embody the relative victory of the left in the second round. This situation, which seems to overshadow all other political forces since this election, was born from the unexpected success of the Republican Front. But also from the low professionalism of the National Rally (RN), whose candidates did not know how or were unable to assert themselves in a political debate where their values and abilities seemed out of step with what the French were looking for.
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The result of the second round of the legislative elections can rightly be interpreted as the refusal to see Jordan Bardella arrive at Matignon. The RN has not been able to completely de-demonize itself, due to the very unfortunate sallies of certain candidates and, above all, has not managed to convince of its ability to govern at a time when international or climatic threats require informed decisions to be made.
That being said, it would be wrong to deduce from this that the left has a hold on the values and electoral choice of the French. In this respect, the mechanical effects of withdrawals in favor of the candidate best placed in the second round against the RN candidate can be misleading. The results of the Ipsos electoral survey for The Worldthe Jean Jaurès Foundation, the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po and the Montaigne Institute, carried out from July 26 to 1is August, reveals very significant results.
Teachers, the only bastion of the left
If we look at the results not in terms of seats but of votes, the RN comes out on top in all professions and the right dominates the left. For example, private sector employees voted in the second round 23% for NFP candidates, 23% for those from the presidential camp but 54% for all the right-wing parties (if we consider that Macronism is not on the right), including 42% for RN and sovereignist right-wing candidates. The RN’s electoral hold on workers has not weakened since its candidates obtained 59% of the votes of skilled industrial workers, those of the Republicans (LR) and various right-wing parties (DVD) 6%, those from the presidential camp 13%, while those on the left obtained 22%.
To this quantitative dimension, we must add the qualitative extension of the RN electorate which continues to expand and integrate the middle and upper social categories. Its candidates obtain significant scores in the liberal professions (28%), among private sector executives (32%) who are also joined by all executives of the three public services (31% on average). Within the public services, only teachers still constitute a bastion of the left: 34% voted for the left (including 32% for the NFP), 32% for Ensemble (the coalition for the presidential camp), 12% for the DVD and LR and 20% for the RN. But, on average, in the State civil service, the left totals 26%, Ensemble 27%, LR and the DVD 11% and the RN 36%, which constitutes a historical record.
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