“It is very likely that a trade war will break out”, the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House scares the ECB

China, already targeted during his first term, could also see its taxes increase by 10%.

The euro zone is also in its sights, particularly Germany which has the highest trade surplus with the United States.

For the euro zone, these duties could lead to an increase in prices, particularly if Europe responds with retaliatory measures, all leading to “an increase in import prices”, explains Ms. Schnabel.

In the immediate future, the current uncertainty is “poison for the economy” by slowing down consumption and investment, she warns.

For the European Union, the Trump presidency is likely to be a bad time to go through

In general, tariffs lead to losses in prosperity on a global scale, according to the central banker: while globalization has brought significant gains in wealth to Europe, “it is possible that we must now prepare for see at least some of those gains reversed,” she tells the financial advice site.

Despite this threatening context, the ECB is “on the right track” to achieve its inflation target of 2%, assures Ms. Schnabel, which should allow the institute to continue to lower its rates, the next opportunity being given at the end January.

After the four cuts decided since June, to reduce its main key rate from 4% to 3%, the ECB is approaching “the point where we will have to carefully examine how far we can go”, concludes the central banker, a fan of rigorous monetary policy.