And it is largely in Trois-Rivières that the sudden increase in population is felt.
The population of Mauricie increased by 5,820 people between 2023 and 2024, to reach 288,400 people. This is an increase of 20.4 per thousand, which places the region in the top 5 regions where the largest increase is observed.
Unsurprisingly, it is Montreal which is recording the strongest growth in its population, with an increase rate of 42.4 per thousand in 2024. Followed by the Capitale-Nationale (24.1 per thousand), Outaouais ( 21.8 per thousand) and Laval (21.3 per thousand). Mauricie therefore comes in fifth place.
On the other side of the river, Centre-du-Québec comes in 12th place, with an increase rate of 14.1 per thousand. In the case of this region, this is a slight decrease compared to the increase recorded the previous year.
In Mauricie, such a population growth rate has never been seen since the data became available, i.e. since 1986-1987.
Such a situation is mainly attributable to interregional migrations, that is to say the movements of people who leave the metropolis, the capital or another region of Quebec to settle in Mauricie. The net interregional migration rate for Mauricie is 7.3 per thousand, with a positive migratory balance of 2,004 people.
This is the third best rate in Quebec, after the regions of Lanaudière (11.2 per thousand) and Laurentides (8.4 per thousand). And although these gains are lower than those of 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, they remain among the highest recorded by the region since the data was compiled (2001-2002).
In comparison, Centre-du-Québec has a net interregional migration rate of 4.5 per thousand, with a migratory balance of 1,148 new Centricois.
The rest of the picture is a little less rosy for our two regions.
First, in terms of international immigration, Mauricie and Centre-du-Québec welcome respectively 1.7% and 1.6% of new arrivals. They occupy the tenth and eleventh ranks out of the 17 administrative regions of Quebec.
Combined with interregional migration, international immigration still explains the good performance of the two regions in terms of population growth.
Because we must not count on natural increase to swell the population.
For almost 30 years, Mauricie has recorded more deaths than births each year. In 2023-2024, this results in a natural balance of –1,318 people. “This deficit has increased over the years, mainly due to an increase in deaths, births having remained relatively stable,” note specialists from the Institute of Statistics of Quebec.
These also highlight that the region is one of the few where births have not decreased in 2023-2024 compared to 2022-2023. As for the fertility index – which makes it possible to estimate the average number of children that women aged 15 to 49 will have during their lifetime – it stands at 1.46 children per woman. This is a little more than the Quebec average, which is 1.38 children.
The other dark portion of the picture concerns the average age of the population. In Mauricie, the population is significantly older than that of Quebec as a whole and the region is still in the lead in terms of the proportion of residents aged 65 and over (27.8%). In contrast, the share of young people under 20 (18.5%) is among the lowest in Quebec.
-In 2004, the average age of Mauritians was 46.2 years. Only two other regions, Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine and Bas-Saint-Laurent, have a higher average age.
In Centre-du-Québec too, the population is older than that of Quebec as a whole. The proportion of people aged 65 and over (24.2%) is higher than that of several regions and exceeds that of those under 20 (21.3%). The average age is 44.1 years in 2024, which is higher than that observed for Quebec as a whole (42.8 years).
Central Quebec
Population growth also affects Centre-du-Québec. As of July 1, 2024, the population was estimated at 263,500 people, an increase of approximately 3,700 people. Data from the Institute of Statistics of Quebec note that it is the only region which saw the pace of its growth slow down compared to that of the previous year, which constituted a peak for it.
As in Mauricie, Centre-du-Québec is one of the regions where the natural increase of the population is negative. More deaths than births are recorded there, for a third consecutive year. The natural balance is –428 people.
As for fertility, it is among the highest in Quebec, with a total fertility index of 1.67 children per woman in 2023.
And as in Mauricie, population gains are largely attributable to migratory exchanges with other regions of Quebec. Its interregional migration balance amounts to 1,148 people in 2023-2024. However, this number is down for a third consecutive year after reaching 2,800 people in 2020-2021.
As for international and interprovincial migrations, they have had a positive impact in Centre-du-Québec, allowing the arrival of 2,965 people in 2023-2024. The gains attributable to temporary immigration were twice those linked to permanent immigration.
Trois-Rivières
Certain data from the ISQ Demographic Report are accessible for each of the MRCs of Quebec or cities with MRC status. And thanks to this data, we see that outside of Montreal, Trois-Rivières ranks second among Quebec MRCs in terms of the annual growth rate, which stands at 29.2 per thousand. Only the MRC of Memphrémagog, in Estrie, does better with 29.6 per thousand.
The relatively affordable cost of living and the proximity to major centers could explain this attraction for the Mauritian metropolis.
Elsewhere in Mauricie, the MRCs (or MRC-cities) show growth rates varying from 4.6 per thousand (La Tuque and Mékinac) to 18.4 per thousand (MRC des Chenaux). In Shawinigan, this rate is 11.7 per thousand while in Maskinongé, it is 11.1 per thousand.
In Centre-du-Québec, the growth rate is 1.0 per thousand in Nicolet-Yamaska and 11.7 per thousand in the MRC of Bécancour. The MRC of Drummond shows the highest increase, at 19.2 per thousand. The MRCs of Arthabaska and l’Érable respectively have a rate of 13.2 and 9.0 per thousand.
That’s a lot of numbers, all that. But it gives a very precise portrait of the demographic situation in our two regions. And this provides proof that what we observe on the ground – increased construction, economic excitement, housing shortage and increase in homelessness – is indeed reflected in the population data.
Such data must above all fuel the thinking of decision-makers on how we should react to such population increases and on the impact on the services offered, whether in terms of education, health, leisure and urban planning.
It’s a big challenge. But it’s certainly more encouraging than when the region lagged behind on many counts when it came to demographics.
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