Alongside the moderate economic outlook for the first quarter of 2025, Moroccan households continue to feel negatively about the evolution of the economic and social situation. A situation which removes the hope of an end to the crisis due to the pressure of inflation and the current situation.
Moroccan households remain pessimistic about the evolution of the economic situation, as revealed by the permanent household economic survey, published by the HCP.
This report, focusing on household morale in the fourth quarter of 2024, analyzes their confidence in terms of unemployment, personal finances, prices, and their propensity to consume. The results show a slight increase in the Household Confidence Index (MCI), which reached 46.5 points, compared to 46.2 points in the previous quarter and 44.3 points a year earlier.
However, this marginal progress does not dispel the concerns of households: 81% declare having suffered a deterioration in their standard of living, while only 14.2% mention stability and 4.8% an improvement. The balance of opinion on the past evolution of the standard of living remains negative, at -76.2 points, slightly up compared to the -75.8 points of the previous quarter, but lower than the -83.2 points recorded in the third quarter 2023.
Economic outlook darkens
The future does not seem much more promising for households. According to the survey, 53.8% of them anticipate a deterioration in their standard of living over the next 12 months, compared to 38.5% who expect stability and only 7.7% who hope for an improvement.
The balance of opinion for this indicator remains negative, at -46.1 points, although a slight improvement compared to -49.3 points in the previous quarter. The situation on the labor market is just as worrying: 82.7% of households expect an increase in unemployment, compared to only 5.5% who expect a decrease.
The national unemployment rate exceeded 13% in 2024, reinforcing a negative balance of opinion of -77.2 points. Furthermore, 80% of households believe that the time is not right to make purchases of durable goods, confirming an unfavorable financial situation.
Insufficient income and increased debt
The current financial situation of households remains fragile: 56.5% believe that their income barely covers their expenses, while 41.2% report going into debt or dipping into their savings, and only 2.3% manage to save. The balance of opinion relating to this situation remains negative, at -38.9 points, a slight improvement compared to -39.3 points in the previous quarter.
In terms of financial development over the last 12 months, 52.7% of households consider that their situation has deteriorated, compared to only 5% who perceive an improvement, bringing the balance of opinion to -47.7 points. For the coming year, 15.2% of households hope for an improvement, compared to 31.5% who expect a deterioration, which brings the balance of opinion to -16.3 points.
-Savings almost impossible
The survey also highlights that 88.9% of households do not plan to be able to save over the next 12 months. The balance of opinion, still negative, stands at -77.8 points. Furthermore, 97.5% of households report having noticed an increase in the prices of food products over the last 12 months.
This trend is expected to continue, according to 83.3% of respondents. The balance of opinion relating to future price developments also remains negative, at -81.8 points.
Human rights and quality of public services
In addition to quarterly data, each year the HCP analyzes household perceptions on structural themes such as human rights, environmental protection and the quality of public services. In 2024, 35.8% of households believe that the human rights situation has improved, compared to 19.6% who believe it has deteriorated, marking a slight regression compared to 2023.
Concerning environmental protection, 47.7% of households perceive an improvement, while 18.9% note a deterioration. On the other hand, the perception of public services is deteriorating: 57.9% of households judge that the quality of educational services has deteriorated in 2024, compared to 18.1% who perceive an improvement.
These proportions were respectively 45% and 28.1% in 2023. As for health services, 61.2% of households report a deterioration, while only 12.4% note an improvement.
On the other hand, the quality of administrative services benefits from a more positive perception, with a balance of opinion increasing from 36.3 points in 2023 to 38.4 points in 2024.
Yassine Saber / ECO Inspirations
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