What 2025 has in store: Trump risks hurting our businesses

The year 2025 is likely to be a special one. Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs of up to 25% on all products from Canada looms over our heads.

• Also read: 2025, a pivotal year for Trump and Trudeau… but also for you

However, it is not yet known whether he will carry out his threat. “In our scenario, we incorporate a 10% increase in prices applied to everyone by the end of 2025,” says Hendrix Vachon, senior economist at Desjardins.

“In the short term, this should be anticipated by American companies. That is to say, they will prepare by anticipating certain imports, by stocking. It is towards the end of 2025 that we are more pessimistic, because once the tariffs are applied, we will have a shock in terms of our trade,” explains the economist.

Inflation should continue to moderate in 2025, in addition to housing which continues to be affected by scarcity. According to Hendrix Vachon, the Bank of Canada will continue to lower its key rate. “We expect a key rate of 2.25% at the end of 2025, compared to 3.50% at the moment.”

1.2 million mortgages to be renewed

Attention all those waiting on the sidelines to buy a house: prices will continue to rise. Philippe Lecoq, president of Proprio Direct, believes that the price of Quebec properties will increase slightly, by around 3% in 2025.

“There is a craze revived by interest rate cuts. It’s not a frenzy, but we have recently seen a resumption of activity,” he says.

Across Canada, 1.2 million mortgages will have to be renewed in 2025. Loans taken out for the most part at a time when the Bank of Canada’s key rate was 1%. Will homeowners be able to pay higher monthly payments?

“Let’s not forget that in recent years there has been a significant increase in salaries. Also, the savings rate is very high, especially in Quebec. It was 8.1% in the third quarter, while in the pre-pandemic period, it was around 2.6%,” underlines Philippe Lecoq.

“There are also many consumers who have not had the chance to buy in recent years and who want to buy. All this will contribute to keeping prices high in 2025,” he concludes.