The Earth could experience a mega volcanic eruption this century

According to scientists, the Earth has a one in six chance of experiencing a volcanic eruption of historic magnitude this century, and humanity has no plan to deal with it, says the “Daily Mail”.

Earth could face a massive volcanic eruption this century, with a chance of one in six, scientists warn. And humanity has no plan to deal with it, we learn in the “Daily Mail”.

Such an event, according to climatology professor Markus Stoffel, could trigger “climate chaos” similar to the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia.

This eruption released 24 cubic miles of gas, dust and rock into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to plummet. Crops failed, famine spread, disease increased, and tens of thousands died.

But unlike the “year without a summer” that followed the Tambora eruption, a 21st-century mega-volcano would add to the disruption already caused by humanity's dependence on fossil fuels. “The effects could be even worse than in 1815,” said geologist Michael Rampino. “The world is more unstable now.”

Hot spell, then cold

Ironically, the greenhouse gases released over the last century could make the consequences of such an eruption even colder, our British colleagues report.

Our future, likely warmer atmosphere, according to one study, would eliminate 30% more solar energy in some future “global warming” scenarios. “We suggest that this would amplify surface cooling by 15%,” says volcanologist Thomas Aubry.

But there are also troubling uncertainties, Dr. Stoffel, who teaches at the University of Geneva, noted on CNN: “We are only beginning to have an idea of ​​what could happen.”

When it comes to older volcanoes, “we have very poor data,” says Stoffel, which makes it more difficult to reconstruct a model of their impact. To compensate, climatologists, geologists and other researchers gather atmospheric data frozen in time in ice cores or embedded in old tree rings.

These measurements suggest that several volcanic eruptions over the past few thousand years, like that of Tambora, have temporarily cooled the planet by around 1 to 1.5°C.

Additionally, geological evidence suggests that another large volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 1257, the massive Samalas event, likely helped trigger a “Little Ice Age” lasting several hundred years.

“Impossible to predict”

The 1991 explosion of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, on the other hand, is known more accurately to have cooled the Earth for a few years by about 0.5 degrees Celsius, based on modern satellite data that can record the amount of carbon dioxide sulfur released.

Even with these additional sensors and other seismic instruments, however, scientists still cannot predict the future of a volcano. “Which one and when,” says Stoffel, “is still impossible to predict.”

His hope is that research into worst-case scenarios could help the public and policymakers better prepare, from evacuation plans to preparing food aid in the event of a global crop failure.

A 21st century eruption would impact a much more populated and interconnected world where dramatic disruptions could resonate in violent and unexpected ways.

“Steam bombs”

Climate change can even alter the behavior of volcanoes themselves, according to Dr. Aubry, who noted that the melting and disappearance of glaciers above an underground magma pocket can relieve the pressure that's holding it down.

The December 2023 volcano lava on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula fissure may have been helped by melting glaciers – which reduced the weight that kept hot magma trapped inside the Earth. “We can therefore expect potentially more eruptions,” the scientists warned.

More extreme precipitation, exacerbated by climate change, can also lead to detonations similar to “steam bombs” as this moisture seeps deep into crevices near active and dormant volcanoes, notes Thomas Aubry.

“We are currently working to map the volcanoes most sensitive to climate change,” Dr Aubry told Polytechnique Insights last October. “Basically, we know that this concerns regions where glaciers are melting quickly, such as Iceland or Chile, as well as volcanoes strongly affected by precipitation, such as in Indonesia,” he lists.

A 2022 study found that about 716 volcanoes worldwide, or 58% of those known to be active and above ground, could be triggered by more extreme precipitation, the scientist adds, which would increase the chances of a dangerous mini-ice age.

The editor wrote this article using AI.