Merry Christmas Fed – Zonebourse

Everyone was in a waiting position yesterday, in anticipation of the American central bank’s decision on its rates. Western equity indices have mostly stagnated or lost ground, like Wall Street (-0.4% for the S&P500), Frankfurt (-0.33%) and London (-0.8%). . Paris survived, gaining 0.1% thanks to slight gains in luxury.

The problem with these periods of decisions on rates is that we always repeat a bit of the same thing. But we have to pay attention to it, so here is yet another review of the situation.

The Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points tonight, almost without a shadow of a doubt. Any other action would leave the market stunned. Attention will focus on the next moves, which will be carried out under the reign of Donald Trump II. Jerome Powell, the head of the central bank, will probably seek to delay while preparing the market for a moderation in the pace of future rate cuts. In any case, this is the most likely posture, pending the first concrete measures which will be deployed by the old-new president.

The December Fed meeting does not include any additional forward-looking documents, unlike the following two. That of the end of January will be accompanied by an annual document called “Statement on long-term objectives and monetary policy strategy” and that of early March will contain the “FOMC projection material“, which contains in particular the forecasts of each member of the Fed on the evolution of rates in the short, medium and long term.

And to continue with the repetition, the stock market likes the mix of low rates, strong growth and moderate inflation. Obviously, he also tolerates the mix of high rates, solid growth and somewhat high inflation, which has been dominant for more than two years. Any unfavorable slippage in growth (too low) or inflation (too high) would pose problems. These are the imbalances that investors must be careful of… and that the Fed is also monitoring, among others.

That said, nothing is happening at the end of the year on the markets, even if volumes are starting to seriously decline. The proof, the old sea serpent of a marriage between Honda and Nissan has resurfaced. The two Japanese manufacturers have confirmed that they are exploring a way to strengthen their ties. Renault, which still owns a significant share of Nissan (including a fraction under trust), is currently evaluating its options. Some rumors in the corridors suggest that discussions between Nissan and Honda have accelerated after a sign of interest in Nissan from the Taiwanese Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision). Specialists are not necessarily surprised, since the porosity between technology and automobiles is increasingly strong, as demonstrated by the success of Tesla or the offensives of Huawei or Xiaomi in electric vehicles.

In the political-geopolitical aspect, relations between the United States and China remain complex. The White House is expected to launch an investigation into Chinese semiconductors sold in the United States, amid fears for national security. The news does little to dent the attempted rebound in Chinese stock indexes, which apparently appreciated President Xi Jinping’s encouragement to officials to scientifically plan economic recovery efforts in 2025. Clearly, the incantations are working still very good with the Chinese stock market. In France, the spiral of loss is taking shape with the first credit rating downgrades of major French banks by Moody’s, a mechanical consequence of the lowering of the French sovereign rating by the rating agency last Friday. On Monday, the Banque de France reduced its growth forecasts for the years to come. The country is still looking for a government. Afterwards, it will be necessary to find a political guideline. But each day is enough for its punishment.

Outside of China this morning, the eastern stock markets showed mixed performances. Moderate declines in Japan, India and Australia and relatively robust gains in South Korea and Taiwan. American futures are bullish but European leading indicators are more hesitant.

Today’s economic highlights

British inflation (8:00 a.m.), European inflation (11:00 a.m.) and building permits in the United States (2:30 p.m.) will precede the Fed’s revision of its rates at 8:00 p.m. The whole agenda here.

The main changes in recommendations

• Aedifica: Bernstein maintains its market performance recommendation with a price target reduced from 72.50 to 70 EUR.
• Alfa Laval: RBC Capital upgrades its sector performance advice to outperform with a price target raised from SEK 450 to SEK 570.
• Allianz: Autonomous Research goes from neutral to outperformance with a price target raised from 284 to 330 EUR.
• Axa: Autonomous Research goes from neutral to outperformance with a price target raised from 36 to 39 EUR.
• Carmila: Bernstein maintains its underperformance recommendation with a price target raised from 16.80 to 17 EUR.
• Covivio: Bernstein downgrades from outperformance to market performance with a price target raised from 62 EUR to 63 EUR.
• DFDS: Carnegie Group downgrades its buy to hold advice with a price target reduced from 375 DKK to 173 DKK.
• Gecina: Bernstein maintains its outperformance recommendation with a price target reduced from 124 to 121 EUR.
• Generali: Autonomous Research downgrades its recommendation from outperformance to neutral with a price target of 30 EUR.
• Halma: Oxcap Analytics starts overweight monitoring with a price target of 3500 GBX.
• Havas: Barclays starts overweight monitoring with a price target of 2.15 EUR. Bernstein starts monitoring with a market performance recommendation and a price target of EUR 1.90.
• Icade: Bernstein downgrades from outperformance to market performance with a price target reduced from 30 EUR to 26.60 EUR.
• Kemira: SEB Bank improves its recommendation from hold to buy with a price target of 23 EUR.
• Klépierre: Bernstein maintains its underperformance recommendation with a price target raised from 27 to 29 EUR.
• Lonza: RBC Capital maintains its sector performance recommendation with a price target raised from 590 to 610 CHF.
• Mapfre: Autonomous Research improves its recommendation from underperformance to neutral with a price target of 2.20 EUR.
• Mobilezone: Bank Vontobel AG maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target reduced from 14.50 to 12 CHF.
• Nestlé: Stifel maintains its recommendation to hold with a reduced price target of 91 to 87 CHF.
• OSB Group: Peel Hunt downgrades its accumulate to hold advice with a price target raised from 395 GBX to 414 GBX.
• Segro: Bernstein downgrades from outperformance to market performance with a price target reduced from 1060 GBX to 900 GBX.
• Swatch Group: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from 174 to 165 CHF.
• Tryg: Autonomous Research moves from outperform to neutral with a price target reduced from 175 DKK to 165 DKK.
• Ubisoft Entertainment: Stifel downgrades from buy to hold with a price target reduced from 15 to 13 EUR.
• Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: Bernstein maintains its outperformance recommendation with a price target raised from 90 to 99 EUR.
• Warehouses De Pauw: Bernstein maintains its underperformance recommendation with a price target reduced from 24.50 to 22.50 EUR.
• Zehnder Group: Bank Vontobel AG maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the price target from 68 to 62 CHF.
• Zurich Insurance Group: Autonomous Research maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 530 to 560 CHF.

In France

Important announcements (and less important… I should point out that the information is given immediately before the opening and does not prejudge the color of the shares during the session)

• Vivendi leaves the CAC 40 index, replaced by Bureau Veritas after the split.

• Moody’s lowers the outlook on the debt of seven French banks (including BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole but not Société Générale) after France’s rating was lowered.

• Olivier Gavalda will replace Philippe Brassac at the helm of Crédit Agricole.

• Stellantis plans to invest 8 billion euros in its Italian operations by 2026.
• Vinci published airport and highway traffic on the rise in November.
• Eutelsat has selected Airbus for 100 satellites in the OneWeb constellation.
• SES successfully launches the seventh and eighth satellites of its O3b mPOWER constellation.
• Voltalia has entered into a partnership with the Auchan, Décathlon and Leroy Merlin brands for parking charging stations.

• CD&R and Permira buy the controlling block of Exclusive Networks and launch a simplified takeover bid at EUR 18.96 per share, as planned.

• Tour Eiffel launches a capital increase of €600 million with preferential subscription rights at EUR 5.15 per share.
• Atland sells Urban Valley from Pierrefitte-Stains.
• Arverne Group announces a framework agreement between Lithium de France and Tenaris, relating to the acquisition of tubular components, for its geothermal heat and lithium project in Alsace.
• Fill Up Media raises €3.5 million through reserved capital increase and OCA for the benefit of Vatel and signs €2 million in bank financing.
• Icape is expanding into the UK.
• SCBSM buys a Parisian building.
• Hydrogen Refueling Solutions sells four recharging stations to Hympulsion in the AURA region.
• Drone Volt reduces its costs and hopes for positive EBITDA in 2025.
• Theranexus signs distribution agreement with Exeltis.
• Predilife raised €0.65 million net with its ORNANE.
• The main publications of the day : nothing… The rest here.

In the big world

Important (and not so important) announcements

D’Europe

From North America

From Asia Pacific and beyond

• Honda Motor and Nissan begin merger talks, Nissan stock soars.

• Bain Capital intends to launch a tender offer for Fuji Soft shares without board approval, although Fuji Soft supported KKR’s second offer.

• A US commercial court finds that Lenovo smartphones infringe Ericsson patents.

• The main publications of the day : nothing…

The rest of the global publications calendar here.

Lectures