In the event of censorship by the Barnier government and absence they budget for 2025, a renewal of that of 2024, without indexation to inflation, could penalize 17.6 million tax households. According to BFMTV, which relies on OFCE analyses, certain taxpayers would see their taxes increase significantly.
The censorship that threatens the Barnier government could lead to a worrying domino effect for taxpayers. This is what BFMTV noted on Tuesday December 3. With the possible adoption, on Wednesday, of the motion of censure carried by the left and which should be supported by the RN, the rejection of the finance bill for 2025 seems almost inevitable. In the absence of a voted budget by the end of the year, a special law would temporarily renew the 2024 budget.
Such a scenario would cancel the indexation of the income tax scale to inflation, thus depriving tax households of a measure intended to compensate for the rise in prices. The Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand warns on France 2: “If income tax increases or if the French are penalized in their savings, it is they who will pay the consequences, and no one else.”
According to the OFCE, approximately 380,000 households currently not taxable would cross the income tax thresholdset for 2024 at 11,294 euros, when it should have been raised to 11,520 euros. In total, 17.6 million households would see their taxes increase, particularly households with incomes close to the median level, who would lose between 50 and 100 euros per year.
A measure that would benefit state coffers
This indexation freeze could bring in nearly 3 billion euros to the state, according to estimates. However, it would result in a heavier burden for the middle classes, while the wealthiest households would be less affected, due to the low progressivity of the upper brackets.
On the left, there is a call to put concerns into perspective by promising the rapid adoption of a new finance bill to restore indexation at the start of 2025. It remains to be seen whether a parliamentary majority will be able to agree in a particularly tense political climate.
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