Kirby Dach hasn’t dominated anything since he was 15

For Kirby Dach, it must be frustrating not to meet expectations. But it’s not that abnormal. The forward has, in fact, never dominated in hockey since he was 15 years old.

Dach is a major part of the Canadiens’ reconstruction. It is one of the keys to the promised land. A Dach not good enough for a top 6, that delays the Gorton-Hughes plan a lot.

However, it must be remembered that Dach has never been a sure bet. It was a project and it still is. It’s not his fault that everyone always saw him as a future impact player.

He never had to dominate anything to find himself a contender for the star center position in the biggest hockey market in the world.

In midget AAA, he had one point per game, like in junior. It’s not dominant. Since then, he has been in the NHL and despite some good streaks in the past, he has never dominated.

It was in 2015

The last time he was too strong for the league was the last time he played with guys his age, at 15. He had 132 points in 48 games. It was in 2015.

It must have been incredible what he was told at the time. He’s big, skilled, intelligent and he makes lots of points. When you have these tools, you are destined to become a star.

Since then, he hasn’t done anything exceptional. He always played with older guys and always did well, but that’s it. Being average is what he’s been experiencing for a long time.

But I’m not throwing in the towel. Really not.

This is a rather surprising third overall pick. Many saw him further away. However, if he had been a ninth choice overall, already there, I think we would be a little more lenient.

Longer than the others

Then, you always have to be patient with players who have never really dominated.

Martin Necas, in Carolina, hadn’t broken anything since he was 16. But there, at 25 years old, he is among the best scorers in the NHL. The examples are numerous. Counter-examples too, however, like a certain Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Which way will Dach turn? I tend to believe that it’s on the good side.

It must be remembered that NHL teams do not draft a player. They draft what a player can become. Otherwise, I guarantee you that Kirby Dach would not have come out third overall. It’s obvious. He didn’t have the speed, shooting, upside and production to be drafted that high.

We talked about him as a player who did not possess any exceptional assets, except his sense of playmaking. We predicted that he could be a good second center, solid over 200 feet and not really a scorer.

Where are we in relation to these projections?

For his speed, it may not seem like it, but he is among the fastest forwards in the NHL. On 196 occasions this year, he has skated faster than 29 km/h. On average, other attackers did it 127 times. It reached 36.58 km/h per hour. It’s quick to catch up. That puts him among the fastest in the NHL.

He may look rough from time to time, but he skates a lot more than the others, the Kirby. He has already skated a distance of 90 km this season. The average is 60 km.

He has 39 hits, which is among the best in CH.

He has 36 shots on goal and 23 of them come from the slot. It’s far from bad.

One stat he’s lousy at is that he gets the puck taken away from him and rarely takes it away from others. But his ratio is identical to that of Nick Suzuki or Brendan Gallagher.

Unlucky

The problem is that Kirby Dach, this year, is scoring 2.8% of the time when he throws. The average is 12.6%. This is an anomaly. This can’t last. Make him average and we all suddenly start to forgive him for some of his shortcomings. In this case, it looks like he’s coming back from an injury, but he still has 12 points in 20 games (compared to eight, including one goal) and everything is looking good.

I saw it like you, his differential of -15. But he was at -2 two years ago when all CH players were at -10. It’s not wasted effort.

I see it like you when the numerical advantage is well established and Dach does anything with the puck.

When he has a chance to score and he sends a puck right into the middle of the opposing goalie’s belly.

When he does anything in the defensive zone and it leads to a goal for the opposing team.

I don’t think it’s a question of skills, all that. But a problem of trust.

Is he lazy? Maybe. I dare to believe not. But I tell myself it’s more complex than that. That it’s the unknown, everything he’s experiencing. That he never really had to work hard to succeed. That there is anxiety. That he has never been spied on so much. And that for the first time in his life, he is expected among the elite and not just among the promising players who are doing well.