The research office presents 5 securities to buy, and around fifteen to accumulate in the universe of values it covers. Overview of stocks to buy.
Addoha: A potential of 25.9% on the stock market
According to the research office, ADDOHA should experience a significant improvement in its consolidated revenues of +35% to 2.88 billion dirhams in 2024, driven mainly by a strong recovery in sales and the continued dynamism of African subsidiaries expected to contribute to nearly by a third of overall turnover in 2024.
In terms of prospects, ADDOHA should continue the reconfiguration of projects initially dedicated to social housing into medium-standard housing, with the aim of better positioning itself in this segment and strengthening its African internationalization strategy. On the operational side, ADDOHA should record a significantly improved REX at MAD 524 million compared to MAD 143 million in 2023, mainly supported by better cost management. Therefore, Addoha should generate an RNPG of 284 MDH, up +50.9% compared to a year earlier. In view of the above elements, BKGR recommends buying the stock with a target price of 43 DH.
Attijariwafa bank: A potential of 12.5% on the stock market
In line with previous years, ATTIJARIWAFA BANK continues to display remarkable achievements, regardless of the economic context. In terms of forecasts, BKGR expects for 2024:
- A NBI up by +9.7% to MAD 32.8 billion should in particular be driven by the net interest margin, benefiting from a reduction in the cost of refinancing and a strong expected increase in the result of market activities ;
- EBITDA increased by +12.8% to MAD 20 billion following good control of general operating expenses explained by rigorous cost control;
- An improvement in the cost of risk to 0.95% compared to 1.04% in 2023 as a result of an improvement in the macroeconomic situation in Morocco and in Africa in general and a better recovery and payment policy. risk management;
- And an RNPG increase of +20.8% to MAD 9.1 billion.
Title to buy according to analysts, who value it at 635 DH.
HPS: A potential of 23.7%
Capitalizing on the diversity of its business model and the acquisition of CR2 which should contribute to the Group’s revenues and offer it greater commercial coverage in new geographic areas, HPS should continue to post consolidated revenues up significantly by +13, 4% to MAD 1,350 million in 2024, taking advantage of:
- The expected +11% increase in revenues from the Payment activity driven by the deployment of POWERCARD solutions in strategic markets and geographic expansion (new openings in Canada, India and Australia);
- The projected increase of +15% in revenues from the Switching activity benefiting from the strong expected growth in transaction volumes of interoperable withdrawal operations, e-commerce transactions and payment transactions with merchants as part of the capping of the levels interchange fees;
- And the stabilization of revenues from the Testing activity through the resumption of several projects postponed with historic customers. The promotion of SaaS mode, generating revenues from service provision only during the project deployment period and impacting profitability temporarily, should strengthen the Group’s recurring and regular revenues in the medium term after they are put into production by 2027.
On the basis of these elements, BKGR recommends the purchase of the stock in the portfolios due to the significant potential for growth in HPS’s results in the medium term with a target price of 700 DH.
Maroc Telecom: A potential of 20.3%
In 2024, the historic operator should post a consolidated top line in virtual stagnation of -0.5% at MAD 36,602 million, integrating the continued decline in activity in Morocco, partially offset by the dynamism of the MOOV AFRICA subsidiaries. These projections are further confirmed by the achievement rate of 75% at the end of September 2024. In this wake and taking into account the good control of operational costs, the Group’s EBITDA should be stable at MAD 19,180 million in line with the guidance of the Group for a margin down slightly to 52.4% compared to 52.7% in 2023.
For its part, the bottom line should show a strong depreciation of -64.8% to MAD 1,862 million, suffering from the settlement of MAD 6 billion relating to the IAM/WANA dispute. Note that the direct impact of the latter on the RNPG is set at MAD 4,115 million given that the amount due in damages is tax deductible.
On the balance sheet side, net debt is expected to increase at the end of 2024 in the wake of the settlement of the dispute with WANA CORPORATE, as evidenced by the +32% increase in the Group’s net debt to MAD 23 billion at the end of September 2024. By eliminating the risk linked to the IAM/WANA dispute, the evolution of the stock market price should henceforth be better correlated to the Group’s development prospects. Therefore, BKGR recommends buying the IAM stock with a target price of 108 DH.
LafargeHolcim Maroc: A potential of 21%
For the year 2024, LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC should record a turnover up +2.1% to MAD 8,381 million driven by the increase in cement sales at the national level. On the operational side, the REX should appreciate by +4.1% to MAD 3.1 billion thanks to an effort to reduce production costs taking into account the drop in input prices for an EBIT margin increasing by 0, 7 pt at 37%. In terms of profit capacity, BKGR expects an increase of +5.9% to MAD 1,639 million, setting the net margin at 19.6% vs. 18.8% in 2023.
Valued at MAD 2,245, the stock is recommended for purchase.
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