Having failed to respond in time to the ultimatum posed by the Bloc Québécois, the Trudeau government can no longer count on it to ensure its survival in the fall.
The Bloc will now work to plunge the country into a new electoral campaign, announced its leader, Yves-François Blanchet, during a press briefing held Tuesday morning. He sent a letter to the other leaders of the opposition parties asking them to put an end to this 44e legislature — what they have the power to do in the face of a minority government, as long as Parliament emerges from its paralysis.
“The only common ground we need is to send the Liberals to the showers,” summarized Mr. Blanchet.
October 29 marks the end of the ultimatum he gave to the minority Liberal government in the House of Commons. Its conditions were not met before the end of the deadline. The Liberals had the entire month of October to pass a bill to increase the Old Age Security pension for seniors aged 65 to 74, and to get a bill out of the Senate to protect the management of the offer of commercial negotiations.
Tuesday’s announcement increases the risk of an election being called this fall. However, it is not a surprise, since the Bloc leader’s game plan was known to everyone.
Political paralysis
Some scenarios could cause the fall of the government this fall. The most likely, that of a motion of no confidence supported by the three main opposition parties, however requires an end to the obstruction operation which has paralyzed the Ottawa Parliament for more than a month. No bill can be voted on at this time, nor can a new motion of censure similar to those drafted by the Conservatives earlier this fall.
“To overthrow the government, parliament must function,” confirmed Mr. Blanchet on Tuesday.
The leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, is eager for new elections and reiterates on a daily basis the need for a vote on the Liberals’ “carbon tax”. Despite his insults towards the Bloc Québécois, which he associates with Justin Trudeau’s record in a “Liberal Bloc”, the leader of the opposition said Monday that he was ready to “work with anyone to trigger an election”.
The Bloc Québécois is still giving the government the chance to provide it with all of its demands on a silver platter before a possible vote of censure. However, he rules out this being drowned out in the fall economic update, which is expected shortly. This document is compared to “a trap”, even to an “arsenic pudding” mixing the good and the bad.
It’s up to the NDP to decide now
All eyes will now be on the New Democratic Party (NDP), the fourth party in the Commons, which had concluded a pact with the Liberals to keep them in power until 2025 before abruptly ending it in September, in the middle of the campaign for two by-elections.
However, the New Democrats continued to vote, like the Bloc, for the survival of the government during the votes of no confidence in the fall. Now that the Bloc Québécois is showing its intention to side with the Conservative Party, Jagmeet Singh’s party is the only one on which Justin Trudeau’s minority government could count to avoid elections.
“If the NDP, which also voted in favor of our two bills [exigés par l’ultimatum]wants to be consistent […]well, he should have electoral signs printed,” said Yves-François Blanchet in a defiant tone.
The main interested party, New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh, indicated Monday that he was going to “look at what the other parties share with [lui] “. He assures that he will examine each vote by asking himself “if it will help Mr. and Mme Everyone” before taking a position.
The deputy leader of the NDP, Quebec MP Alexandre Boulerice, indicated Tuesday that his photos for the electoral signs have already been taken. He is waiting to see the outcome of the parliamentary blockade before announcing whether or not he will bring down the government. “The lesson to be learned today is that the Bloc failed to obtain things from the minority government. […] It was a big threat that wasn’t going anywhere, a big damp squib,” he told the press on Tuesday.
For his part, Justin Trudeau’s new Quebec lieutenant, Jean-Yves Duclos, mocked the Bloc Québécois’ approach, noting that the party had set itself “an artificial ultimatum.” He indicated that he would not deviate from his government’s priorities, including dental care and school food programs.
If the opposition parties cannot agree on a motion of censure – and if the Prime Minister does not call an election himself – the Liberal government could still theoretically find sufficient support for its next budget. In such a case, his mandate could continue until its end. Regardless, the next federal election will be held on October 20, 2025 at the latest.
With The Canadian Press
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