Updated October 19, 2024 at 9:00 p.m.
In just a few hours, two tropical systems became the 14th and 15th named tropical storms of the season. The last one quickly achieved hurricane status and took the world by surprise. Details.
Nadine
During the night from Friday to Saturday, the 14th named tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic emerged. According to model estimates, Nadine was expected to make landfall during Saturday evening. However, it reached Belize around noon, with sustained winds of 80 km/h. However, it is not the winds that pose the greatest threat; precipitation is the greatest danger. In places, rainfall amounts could reach up to 300 mm. Nadine could cause major flooding and landslides.
Oscar
Nadine’s monopoly was short-lived: Oscar was born on Saturday morning, becoming the 15th tropical storm of the season. However, what distinguishes Oscar from Nadine is his power and his potential longevity. In less than two hours, Oscar went from a tropical system to a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 130 km/h. Remember that the waters are particularly warm at this time of year. In places, the water temperature is above 30°C, notably in the Antilles and the Bahamas.
This rapid intensification does not bode well: Oscar is heading straight towards the south of Cuba. At the time of writing, it would make landfall Monday morning, very close to the city of Holguin. According to NOAA, Oscar would then turn around northeast, towards the Exuma Islands, an archipelago in the Bahamas. The hurricane could dump between 100 and 200 mm on eastern Cuba, or even more in places. Storm surges threaten coastlines and strong winds could cause significant damage. A hurricane warning has been issued by NOAA for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.
Oscar became the 10th hurricane of the season. The Atlantic basin has the wind in its sails: since Hurricane Helene, which devastated the Big Bend region on September 27, six named tropical storms have emerged. Among them, Kirk, Leslie, Milton and the very recent Oscar have obtained hurricane status.
According to Nicolas Lessard, meteorologist, “the weather models did not indicate that a hurricane was going to form in this region of the tropics. A disturbance was nevertheless under surveillance, but the intensity of the system, given its small size, was underestimated. It was when a reconnaissance aircraft entered the core of the storm early Saturday afternoon that data revealed hurricane-force winds.”
Good to know: during their passage through the Gulf of Mexico, major hurricanes Helene and Milton stirred up the waters and cooled them at the same time. Since no tropical systems have recently passed through the Antilles, warm waters could feed Oscar and intensify it.
Source : NOAA
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