A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a “strengthening tropical storm” Monday, increasing the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory Monday morning.
The system, currently labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is moving toward the north-northwest at around 5 mph, the NHC said, with a slow northwestward to northward motion expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. The hurricane center gives it a 90% chance of formation within the next 48 hours.
The NHC also warned that more “significant intensification” of this system is forecast to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, with it projected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
According to the NHC, the disturbance is expected to move “just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico” through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.
The center of the system was an estimated 305 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and about 545 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana on Monday morning. With sustained winds estimated at 50 mph, the elongated system was barely moving at 5 mph in a north-northwesterly direction.
A tropical storm watch was issued Sunday for southern Texas, from Port Mansfield south to the Rio Grande River, which means tropical storm winds are possible along the coast by Tuesday evening. A tropical storm watch also is in effect southward along the Mexican coast to Barra del Tordo.
Unless one of the systems being watched out in the tropical Atlantic forms first, this storm would become the sixth named storm of the 2024 season, and would be named Francine.
Weather watch:Tropical system could be hurricane by Wednesday, headed toward Louisiana and Texas
NHC also tracking two other disturbances in Atlantic
The NHC also said Monday morning it is tracking two other disturbances brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.
The first disturbance, currently labeled as Invest 92L, is producing “disorganized showers and thunderstorms” over the central tropical Atlantic, the NHC said, and environmental conditions appear “generally conducive” for development during the next few days.
A tropical depression is expected to form while the system moves over the central tropical Atlantic, and the storm should begin moving westward-northwestward at 10 mph by the middle of the week, the hurricane center said. The disturbance currently has a 60% chance of formation through the next seven days.
The second disturbance, currently located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the NHC.
The system is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave in the next couple of days, and environmental conditions appear favorable for a “gradual” development of this system thereafter, with a tropical depression possibly forming during the middle to later part of this week.
The NHC gives this disturbance a 60% chance of formation through the next seven days.
Atlantic storm tracker
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six spaghetti models
Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She’s been writing about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp.
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].
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