How many times did he repeat it? “We will achieve the objective” to bring the public deficit down to less than 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2027, Bruno Le Maire affirmed in March, despite an initial slippage in public accounts. It is necessary “redouble your determination” to reach this target, he continued in April, after a warning from the very doubtful rating agencies. “My objective remains to return to below 3% deficit in 2027,” he maintained on July 31.
The Treasury note submitted to parliamentarians on September 2 by the resigning Minister of Economy and Finance, however, says something completely different. Public finances continue to drift, and if nothing is done, France’s deficit, instead of being reduced as targeted, will increase sharply. It would represent 5.6% of GDP in 2024, then 6.2% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026, before stabilizing at 6.5% in 2027. Far, very far from the commitment made by Emmanuel Macron and his ministers. The intermediate objective of 4.1% that was planned for 2025 “seems very difficult to achieve”, and it seems necessary to set a new “acceptable date for the deficit to return to below 3% of GDP”, writes the Director of the Treasury, Bertrand Dumont, in his note consulted by The World.
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“We had doubts, but now it is clear, France will not be able to keep its promises, comments with bitterness Jean-François Husson, general rapporteur (Les Républicains, LR) of the finance committee in the Senate. This slippage is leading us to the edge of the precipice. I am all the more angry because we had requested this note on July 18. Bruno Le Maire kept it under his elbow for a month and a half before giving it to us on Monday evening. They are making fun of us!
At the beginning of the year, the executive had presented the deficit slippage in 2024 as an unforeseeable accident. This time, Bercy puts the gap between the political objectives and these new estimates down to three key elements. On the one hand, a deterioration in the economic situation, especially in 2025, which risks reducing tax revenues. On the other hand, an uncontrolled increase in local government spending. Last but not least, the absence of strong corrective measures: in the spring, Emmanuel Macron did not want a corrective budget, and since the dissolution, the government on probation has frozen certain credits on paper, but without anything definitive. The lack of concrete implementation of the projects launched by Bercy to make savings or increase certain taxes alone is expected to increase the public deficit by 56.8 billion euros in 2025, according to the Treasury.
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