Among the main residences, 1.7 million T4 or more are occupied by seniors over 80 years old. Due to deaths and admissions to specialized structures, they could become available and be divided to create more housing.
Housing the French without necessarily having to build? This will be partly possible within a few years, according to the start-up specializing in territorial open data Terre de données. It estimates that within 5 to 10 years, more than 1.7 million large homes (T4 and above) could become available and be divided into smaller properties.
To understand, we must start from the observation. In France, households are increasingly tight. The number of single-parent families has exploded (+22% between 2009 and 2020 according to INSEE). Which means that the demand for small housing (T2 or T3) is increasingly pressing.
Given the evolution of the population, the Union social pour l’habitat estimates that France will need 518,000 new housing units per year (new construction or re-marketing) by 2040, including 38% of social housing.
A pool of 1.7 million homes
But there are many obstacles in a property market in poor health. Among the explanatory factors, we can cite the surge in borrowing rates (even if a decrease has begun) or the gradual disappearance of tax incentive schemes. At the same time, new construction is slowed by the increase in the price of materials.
In this context, how can we respond to the housing crisis that is making the French vulnerable? Out of 30 million main residences, nearly 9 million are currently occupied by retirees, according to INSEE data compiled by Terre de données. More than 65% of them are large T4 and larger apartments (i.e. nearly 6 million homes).
Nearly 3 million are inhabited by seniors over 80 years old and 63% of them are T4 or more, or 1.7 million homes. Even if it is not very encouraging, Terre de données estimates that “in the next 5 to 10 years, these main residences should end up on the real estate market due to, among other things, deaths and admissions to specialized structures such as Ehpad”.
Multiply by dividing
And there are even more than 1.7 million properties that could come onto the market. These large dwellings, unsuitable for current needs, could be rehabilitated and transformed into a greater number of small dwellings.
“Builders, developers and even communities could therefore find in the homes of these seniors the opportunity to create housing without the need for land,” the study says.
A real source of residences could see the light of day but “it will be essential to rethink spaces and innovate to create small surfaces (T2 and T3) or to design new forms of housing in coliving for example”.
In addition to the typology, the question of the location of these residences is essential if we want to meet the needs of the population. They must be located close to employment areas, transport and/or services.
Still according to INSEE data, most of these large dwellings are located either in large cities (28%), or, conversely, in the countryside (18% in rural towns and 18% in rural areas with dispersed housing). Mid-sized cities come next (13%), followed by urban belts (10%) and small towns (7%).
Coliving and mutual services
In large cities, half of these residences are houses and the other half are apartments. Outside of metropolitan areas, the overwhelming majority are houses. “This highlights the predominance of individual housing over collective housing,” analyses Julien Cresp, the author of the study.
According to him, entrepreneurs are starting to position themselves in this segment. “They can buy a house at the time of succession, renovate it and divide it. With a large T5, they can make a T2 and a T3 for example,” he explains.
And for the case of a single elderly person who wants to stay in the house where they have always lived, but who has a home that is too big for them, there is also the possibility of creating a studio within the house. “In the rest of the home a young couple could move in, the idea of this coliving mode is also that the residents provide mutual services,” he explains.
“Obviously, this housing stock does not resolve the urgency of the situation but it is an element to take into account over a 10-year horizon,” concludes Julien Cresp.
