Faced with threats of customs taxes brandished by Donald Trump, the European Union seeks to diversify its trading partners

The European Commission wants to expand trade agreements with Mexico and Canada. Europe also has the possibility of restricting or closing its public markets to American companies.

American President Donald Trump reiterated on Tuesday, the day after his inauguration at the White House, Monday January 20, that he intends to tax more European products that enter American soil, for example German cars or French wines. Every year, European exports to the United States represent 500 billion euros. In the opposite direction, we import 350 billion in American goods. There is therefore a trade deficit to the detriment of Washington, and the American president has this in his sights. “The European Union is very bad for us, he said. She will not be able to avoid customs duties.”

Faced with this threat, Europeans are still divided and hesitant. This is evidenced by the speech by the President of the European Commission on Tuesday. Ursula Von der Leyen wants to both show off the muscles.“Europeans are ready to defend their interests and their values”, she says, but at the same time, she highlights everything that brings Washington and the 27 together. She actually fears a trade war, even if it seems quite likely. The European Union is already seeking to diversify its trading partners. The European Commission has just launched discussions for a free trade agreement with Malaysia. She also wants to extend trade agreements with Mexico and Canada, two other countries that are in Donald Trump's sights. The American president promised them customs taxes of 25% on February 1, 2025.

If a confrontation with Washington is necessary, Europe has instruments. It can close or restrict its public procurement to American companies. It can also increase customs duties in a broad or more targeted manner. This had already been the case, remember, during Donald Trump's first term, on Harley-Davidsons, America's emblematic motorcycles. A surcharge to make it clear that threats can apply both ways. All European leaders still need to agree and that is of course the problem. Not everyone is aligned with Trumpism. Hungarian Viktor Orban does not hide his sympathy for the American president. Just like the Italian Giorgia Meloni, who is already negotiating contracts with Elon Musk, behind Europe's back.

Added to this are divergent visions. France is pushing for more protectionism. The Nordic countries and the Netherlands refuse to give up on free trade. In short, second term Trumpism will be more than ever a test for the European Union.