Midcap Analysts Unveil 7 Stocks That Can Stand Up to Trump's Protectionism

This is the question that all stock market investors are asking themselves at the start of 2025: how, when you are European, to position yourself on the markets when American President Donald Trump has just been inaugurated, and he just reiterated its protectionist intentions?

The Parisian design office Midcap tackled this question and answered it in the form of a list of 7 values, 6 of which are European and eligible for the PEA. And 2 of which – it's a coincidence – are also part of the Reference Portfolio of the editorial staff of Le Figaro Patrimoine et Bourse.

Invest using big data

How is it developed? “Data scientist” at Midcap and therefore specialist in data analysis, Sami Benjelloun first learned the lessons of history: he looked at the behavior of ETFs, index funds, after the first election of Donald Trump, at the turn of 2016 and 2017. “Certainly, the context is not exactly the same today, but the fundamentals remain similar: stimulation of key sectors (technology, aeronautics & defense, banks) and protectionism,” indicates the specialist in a research note.

Based on these lessons, Midcap then searched, among a universe of 240 predominantly European companies, for values ​​with several qualities: they must first be “significantly” present on the American market, but little exposed to increased customs duties. To do this, the specialist sifted through national customs data, then established statistical correlations with the publications of the companies concerned. Finally, he compared everything to market expectations summarized by the consensus of analysts.

Other required elements: the values ​​retained must also present “an interesting technological bias” and be able to take advantage of the future policies of the Trump Administration. Last criterion: it must rather be large capitalizations, which in the current context behave better than smidcaps.

An equally weighted and efficient selection

From all this comes a list of equally weighted values ​​(they all weigh the same in the portfolio) which has 7 positions. Even if past performances are only indicative, they are rather flattering: on average, the values ​​of Midcap's “Big Data” selection increased by 9% in the first half of 2023, and by 15% in the second half of that same year. , then 2% for the first and second half of 2024.