The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States marks a turning point in Moroccan-American relations. Between expanding strategic partnerships, economic issues and diplomacy, Rabat hopes to maintain its achievements while navigating the sometimes unpredictable waters of American politics.
It’s historic. Donald Trump, at the height of his political power, makes his comeback to the White House, causing shock waves on a global scale. The real estate mogul was sworn in for a second term yesterday, with a promise to govern “with unprecedented speed and force” to put America back on track.
At 78, he becomes the oldest president to occupy the Oval Office, poised to implement a series of sweeping reforms in his first days at the helm.
For the Kingdom, this return could mark a turning point in its relations with the United States, opening the way to new strategic opportunities while bringing its share of challenges. So how could a second Trump term strengthen or transform strategic relations between the two nations, after historic gestures that marked the Republican president’s first stint in the White House?
A return that echoes a historic decision
The announcement of Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sparked mixed reactions around the world. For Morocco, the news is greeted with hope mixed with caution. In 2020, the Trump administration had engraved in the history of Moroccan-American relations the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over its Sahara, a gesture considered a major diplomatic victory.
This decision also opened the way to ambitious projects, notably the prospect of the opening of an American consulate in Dakhla, which is still awaited.
“We hope that this second mandate will make it possible to strengthen the achievements, in particular on the issue of the Sahara, an absolute priority for the Kingdom,” underlines Abdelhafid Oulalou, vice-president of the Moroccan Institute of International Relations (IMRI).
He recalls that Moroccan foreign policy is intrinsically linked to the Moroccanness of the Sahara.
Economic relations under the sign of pragmatism
Since the implementation of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2006, trade between the two countries has experienced notable expansion, reaching $5.5 billion in 2023. While Moroccan exports have tripled since then, Establishment of this agreement, the persistent trade deficit (47.6 billion dirhams) remains worrying.
The agricultural sector, the spearhead of bilateral relations, illustrates the potential of cooperation between Washington and Rabat, with trade estimated at $900 million in 2023. However, as Hassan Sentissi El Idrissi, president of ASMEX, recalls, “Geopolitical interests often take precedence over real economic benefits.” The increase in customs taxes under Trump during his first term also remains a cause for concern.
Military cooperation at the heart of regional strategy
The “African Lion” joint exercises, which bring together several African nations annually, embody the strategic partnership between Rabat and Washington in the military domain. These maneuvers strengthen regional security capabilities and highlight Morocco’s stabilizing role in North Africa.
The geopolitical positioning of the Kingdom, as a bridge between Europe, Africa and the Americas, finds a favorable echo with the American administration.
-“This strategic cooperation is part of a shared vision of stability and the fight against transnational threats,” analyzes Oulalou.
Strengthened diplomacy in the face of international restructuring
Trump’s return could redefine international relations, intensifying rivalries with powers like China, while raising questions about his policy towards Russia. But his return also offers Morocco an opportunity to consolidate its role as an essential ally of the United States.
Moroccan ambitions for the blue economy and African integration align perfectly with American priorities, offering potential synergies. The presence of Aimee Cutrona, new charge d’affaires of the United States in Rabat, is seen as an asset to stay the course. An expert in conflict management, she brings an in-depth understanding of the complex issues in the MENA region.
Between assertive support and political unpredictability
The appointment of pro-Moroccan figures, such as Marco Rubio to the post of Secretary of State, fuels optimism. Rubio recently praised the evolution of bilateral relations, calling Morocco a “model in Africa.”
Furthermore, statements from delegates such as Joe Wilson, president of the United States-Morocco friendship group, reiterate the strategic importance of the Kingdom for Washington.
However, the unpredictability characteristic of Donald Trump’s policies requires increased vigilance from Morocco. Between diplomatic opportunities and economic challenges, the Kingdom will have to play its cards with pragmatism to consolidate its place as a privileged partner of the United States.
ABDELHafid Oualalou
Vice-president of the Moroccan Institute of International Relations (IMRI)
How do you assess the impact of Donald Trump’s recognition of the Moroccan nature of the Sahara on bilateral relations between Morocco and the United States?
Trump’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara in December 2020 was a key moment in bilateral relations. This gesture not only strengthened our political ties, but it also gave new dynamics to the strategic partnership between our two countries. Morocco continues to place the Sahara issue at the heart of its international relations, and this recognition has been valuable support in
this area.
Does Morocco have specific expectations regarding the opening of the American consulate in Dakhla, as promised by the United States?
Yes, Morocco looks forward to the opening of the consulate in Dakhla, as promised by the Trump administration in 2020. This represents concrete support for the Moroccanness of the Sahara and demonstrates the United States’ commitment to the Kingdom . This is a strong signal, and we hope that this commitment will be respected, thus strengthening bilateral relations on the diplomatic and economic levels.
Has the strategic partnership between Morocco and the United States evolved in areas other than the Sahara issue, such as military or economic cooperation?
Indeed, military cooperation has been strengthened, notably through joint military maneuvers such as the African Lion. In economic matters, the free trade agreement signed between our countries has made it possible to increase trade, reaching around 5.5 billion dollars in 2023. However, despite this progress, Morocco continues to record a trade deficit , which shows that bilateral relations go beyond just economic interests, and also include important geopolitical issues.
Faiza Rhoul / ECO Inspirations
