The HCP forecasts economic growth of 3.8% in 2025, 3% estimated for 2024

The HCP forecasts economic growth of 3.8% in 2025, 3% estimated for 2024
The HCP forecasts economic growth of 3.8% in 2025, 3% estimated for 2024

The 2024/2025 agricultural season should be characterized by relatively more favorable climatic conditions than those of the previous campaign which experienced a rainfall deficit severe, leading to cereal production limited to 31.2 MQx. The start of the current season was marked by a good level of precipitation, although followed by thermal shocks. In addition, the resumption of precipitation at the start of the current year should benefit the crop production. Furthermore, livestock activities, although supported by various government measures, should continue to face the negative impact of the recurrence of years of drought, and the challenge of rebuilding the national herd.

Thus, the agricultural added value is expected to increase by 4.1% in 2025, under the assumption of below-average cereal production, after an estimated decline of 5% in 2024.

Taking into account an increase in maritime fishing sector by 6.5% in 2025 after an estimated 3.8% in 2024, the primary sector is expected to improve by 4.2% in 2025, after a decline of 4.6% estimated in 2024, thus contributing positively by 0.4 point to the growth of Gross Domestic Product after a negative contribution of 0.5 point in 2024.

Continued good performance of non-agricultural activities

THE non-agricultural activities would have posted an increase of 3.8% in 2024 and should evolve by 3.6% in 2025, supported by the continued dynamic of construction sectorof the mining activitiesand industrial activitiesas well as by continuing to maintain good performance business activitiesof tourism a you transport.

Industrial activityrepresenting 59% of secondary value added on average between 2019 and 2023, should experience an increase of 3.7% in 2025 after an expected improvement of 4% in 2024.

The activity of the chemical industriesstimulated by an increase in external demand, would have experienced a rebound of 12.9% in 2024 compared to only 1.2% in 2023, thanks to the strengthening of the export-oriented chemical fertilizer industry. This would have benefited from the limitation of Chinese and Russian exports of phosphate fertilizers in the face of increased demand from India and Brazil. In 2025, the chemical industries are expected to maintain their momentum although slowing down, in line with the expected continued improvement in external demand for these products.

Furthermore, the transportation equipment industries would have recorded remarkable growth of 14.4% in 2024, thanks to the establishment of new equipment manufacturers and the extension of automobile factories which would have made it possible to increase production capacities. In addition, increased sales in the assembly and interconnection systems of the electrical wiring would have supported the aeronautical industry. In 2025, these industries should continue their dynamism with growth of around 9.6%, benefiting from foreign direct investments in the automobile sector, which should make it possible to introduce new technologies and strengthen national production. , particularly those of electric batteries.

On the other hand, the textile industry is expected to continue to suffer from low competitiveness on the global market, strong dependence on European markets and the predominance of informal activities, in a context of high energy costs and the weakness of the local textile upstream. As a result, its added value would have experienced negative growth of 3% in 2024 before improving slightly by 1.7% in 2025.

For his part, the activity of the agri-food industryrepresenting 27.5% of industrial value added on average between 2019 and 2023, should record moderate growth of nearly 1.3% in 2025, instead of 0.9% estimated in 2024 and a decline of 0.2% in 2023, following the relatively favorable impacts of upstream agriculture.

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In 2025, the activities of construction sector are expected to continue their progression with growth of 3.8%, instead of 4.2% estimated in 2024 after a decline of 0.4% in 2023. This dynamic should be supported by the gradual decrease in the prices of construction materials and by easing financing conditions, encouraging investment by real estate developers. In addition, it should benefit from the acceleration of hydraulic and energy infrastructure projects and those linked to the organization of major sporting events, as well as the continuation of measures in favor of access to housing and the reconstruction program. and rehabilitation of disaster areas.

Moreover, mining activitystrongly linked to chemical industrywould have rebounded by 17.9% in 2024, marking a positive turnaround after two consecutive years of decline of 23% and 2.7% respectively in 2022 and 2023. This recovery reflects the consolidation of raw phosphate production, stimulated by a increased local demand from processing industries for chemical fertilizers. In 2025, the sector should continue to strengthen with growth of 5.9%, supported by the continued increase in market phosphate production.

Under these conditions, the secondary sector should show an added value increasing by 3.8% in 2025, after 5.1% estimated in 2024, thus contributing 0.9 points to national economic growth instead of 1.2 points in 2024.

The tertiary sectormainly oriented towards the domestic market, should continue to support economic growth in 2025, with an increase of 3.5% after 3.2% forecast in 2024. This development should be attributable to the improvement in non-market services of 3 .2% in 2025 instead of 3.4% estimated in 2024, and Commerce activity, whose added value represents 19% of the tertiary sector on average for the period 2019-2023, is expected to grow at a sustained rate of nearly 2.5% in 2024 and 2025, in line with the growth in economic activity.

The growth in services provided to businesses should stand at 3.8% in 2025, thanks to the resumption of activity in the secondary sector. In addition, real estate activities are expected to improve by 2.2% in 2025, benefiting from the revival of construction activity.

Regarding the added value of the tourism sectorit should improve by 7.4% in 2025, instead of 7.7% expected in 2024 after a rebound of 23.5% recorded in 2023, following the exceptional performance of arrivals and tourist receipts thanks in particular to the organization of international events and the efforts made to promote Morocco as a destination and improve its accessibility.

Under these conditions and taking into account the expected increase taxes and fees on net subsidy products of 5% in 2025 after 5.7% in 2024, the Gross domestic product is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2025 after an increase of 3% estimated in 2024. In value terms, GDP growth is expected to increase from 4.5% in 2024 to 5.9% in 2025, giving rise to inflation, measured by the implicit GDP index of 2.1% in 2025 after 1.5% expected in 2024.

The HCP forecasts economic growth of 3.8% in 2025, 3% estimated for 2024
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