We enter “a world characterized by greater instability, polarizing discourse, erosion of trust and insecurity.” It is with these words that Saadia Zahidi, Director General of the World Economic Forum (or World Economic Forum, WEF), opens the annual report published by the international economic organization this Wednesday, January 15.
After a year 2024 marked by uncertainties, the World Economic Forum, which each year questions economic, scientific and civil society experts on global risks for the years to come, once again delivers a pessimistic diagnosis this year. The report notably points to a higher than ever risk of armed conflicts in the world for 2025, in a context marked by the danger linked to the double crisis of disinformation and the environmental and social crisis.
Disinformation, polarization, and widespread conflict
The Davos Forum is particularly concerned about the conflicts which are crystallizing and getting bogged down, while the war in Ukraine continues to rage at the gates of Europe, and invasions and civil wars are increasing, from Palestine to the Ethiopia via Sudan. A conflicting geopolitical situation which constitutes a growing threat for civilian populations, but also for overall socio-economic stability. With the election of Donald Trump to the White House and the rise of populism throughout the world, all multilateralism and diplomatic effectiveness are eroding, and accentuate the risk of global destabilization.
But WEF experts are especially concerned about a major trend for the years to come: the increase in disinformation, identified as the main risk for the next two years. With the rise of artificial intelligence, and while social networks are massively backtracking on their policies to combat disinformation, fake news now has an unprecedented capacity in history to influence opinions. Latest example: Mark Zuckerberg, boss of Meta, who has just decided to remove the moderation and information verification tools for the three billion users of his Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp platforms, thus imitating what had already done Elon Musk in 2022 for X / Twitter.
“We live in a world where algorithms are designed to make us spend more and more time on social networks, exposed to all types of information, a world where fake news spreads faster than real ones, where speeches extremes have more resonance than scientific discourses” Lou Welgryn, co-president of Data for Good and specialist in disinformation, explains to Novethic. Consequence: discourses become polarized and accentuate social and political extremes.
Environmental crises, main long-term risks
Particularly alarming misinformation, faced with another major risk: that of the ecological crisis. “Over the past two decades, environmental risks have gradually consolidated their position as the main source of long-term concern,” explains Saadia Zahidi, the general director of the WEF. While the consequences of the climate and ecological crisis are already manifesting themselves, from the floods in Valencia to the fires in Los Angeles via Cyclone Chido in Mayotte, the WEF predicts that the situation will get worse. Of the five major risks for the world in the next ten years, four environmental risks come out on top: extreme weather events, the biodiversity crisis, the upheaval of planetary ecosystems and the depletion of resources.
But disinformation could hamper the world’s ability to address these systemic risks. “The data shows that misinformation is extremely strong about the climate crisis or ecological issues in general,” explains Lou Welgryn. The expert describes the proliferation of conspiracy theories which deny the anthropogenic origin of global warming, invent theses on the origin of these climatic disasters, call into question the scientific consensus… “In this climate of disinformation, we risk having more and more polarization, and less support for the need to put in place transition measures, and the politicians who defend these subjects will be completely marginalized” she adds.
Anti-ecological populism
Already at work, disinformation is also contributing to the ongoing backlash on ecological and social transformation. In the wake of Donald Trump, an anti-ecological transition populism is developing massively in the political sphere, but also in the economic world and in the social sphere. In France, according to data from the Ecological Transition Agency, 30% of French people today adhere to a climate-skeptical thesis, a figure which has doubled in 20 years. “We are reaching a situation where some people end up putting their lives in danger because they refuse to protect themselves from extreme weather events, tornadoes or floods.” Lou Welgryn is alarmed.
Among the other risks identified by the WEF, we find again this year the increase in inequalities and social divisions. Issues which are also the subject of increasing misinformation, while hate speech and rejection continue to disinhibit across the world.
