He promises a new “golden age” for America. He promises to pursue his opponents and denounces the “enemy within”. Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20 for a second term which promises to be even more uninhibited and unpredictable.
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If the Republican billionaire has achieved the political comeback of the century, it is not by changing his style: simple ideas, repeated over and over again, without bothering with conventions.
“Trump’s character is fundamentally the same” as during his first term, underlines David Greenberg, professor of history and journalism at Rutgers University, describing him as “volatile, obstinate, erratic”.
“What we can expect is even more unexpected,” he summarizes for AFP.
For Peter Loge, professor at George Washington University, “if you liked Trump 1, you will like Trump 2.”
But unlike his first term between 2017 and 2021, the safeguards seem weakened.
The Republican Party has a majority in Congress, the media is going through an economic and identity crisis, and the conservative establishment is won over to the New York mogul’s cause.
“Trump has reshaped the Republican Party in his image,” said Jon Rogowski, professor of political science at the University of Chicago.
“Erosion”
Nearly 10 years after entering the political scene, the billionaire has managed to surround himself with loyalists and stifle dissenting voices within the conservative camp.
Unlike in 2016, “internal party quarrels will not be a bulwark,” predicts Jon Rogowski.
Also gone is his pariah image, tech bosses and foreign leaders now flock to his luxurious Mar-a-Lago residence to curry favor with the president-elect.
His victory in November, compared to the failure of 2020, “made him more approachable to a broader political spectrum,” according to Jon Rogowski.
At the same time, trust in institutions has eroded and David Greenberg is concerned about a potential weakening of the balance of power over the next four years, in a context of the “war on bureaucracy” promised by Donald Trump and allies like Elon Musk.
Already on the offensive, the president-elect announced the color even before his return to the Oval Office.
Expulsion of more than 10 million irregular migrants, generalized customs duties, annexation of the Panama Canal and Greenland: the list of shocking declarations grows daily.
Without certainty, however, about his desire to apply this program from top to bottom.
“People should take Trump very seriously,” assures David Greenberg, even if “it is often difficult to distinguish what should be taken seriously from what should not be.”
Some statements are “clearly rhetorical provocations,” but others are “real indications of his political thoughts,” he adds.
“Flush out the enemies”
In addition to these thunderous declarations of general policy, the more personal theme of revenge is haunting for Donald Trump.
The Republican rebelled against certain opponents who “should go to prison”, against an ill-defined “enemy from within” who the army should take care of, or even against journalists and media that he intends to drag in front of the courts.
Because the ex-president has never digested his defeat in the 2020 presidential election and continues to assert, without foundation, that this election was stolen from him.
On Tuesday, a report from special prosecutor Jack Smith assuring that Mr. Trump, if he had not been re-elected, would have been convicted for his attempt to reverse the result of the 2020 election, provoked the fury of the next tenant of the White House who called him “disturbed.”
The republican was prosecuted in a total of four criminal cases, convicted in one of them, and is now suspected of wanting to use justice for his own benefit.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if individuals in his administration were primarily responsible for flushing out enemies,” said Jon Rogowski, although he doesn’t expect that to be the top priority.
But for the moment, uncertainty dominates over what will define this second term.
“We are in the middle of a pre-season tour,” analyzes Peter Loge. “Once the season starts in earnest, the rules of the game will change.”
One thing is certain, Donald Trump will be, at 78 years old, the oldest president to take the oath of office, beating Joe Biden by a few months.
Barring an unprecedented coup, the Constitution wants this second term to also be the billionaire’s last and the Republican camp will have the difficult task of finding a successor.
