EAs climate scientists working on extreme weather events and the various ways in which climate change affects them, we are regularly contacted by the media when high-impact events take place. The latest: the passage of Cyclone Chido in Mayotte on December 14, or the intense precipitation in Valencia, Spain, at the end of October.
If there is a scientific consensus that global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions exacerbates certain extreme weather events, it would be simplistic to attribute the severity of material and human damage solely to climate change. This would distract attention from other major causes and responsibilities relating to the vulnerability of populations and infrastructure. The Mayotte tragedy should therefore alert us, as the French government presented, in October, its third national plan for adaptation to climate change.
How does climate change affect the occurrence and intensity of observed events? This question is addressed by climatologists within the framework of the science of extreme event attribution. Attribution studies show, for example, that heatwaves in recent years have been made more likely, and more intense, by climate change.
Pre-existing vulnerability
For some extreme events, attribution to climate change is more complex, but the scientific literature – summarized in IPCC reports – tells us general trends in a warming climate. For tropical cyclones, for example, attribution studies are generally inconclusive, but climate change is known to increase the intensity of their precipitation.
Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers Cyclone Chido, which devastated Mayotte, was probably boosted by the very high temperatures of the Indian Ocean
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However, the human and material damage caused by a climatic disaster is never the result of the extreme climatic event alone. They occur when such an event is combined with a pre-existing vulnerability, for example populations in a situation of economic and social precariousness, elderly, young, and/or in poor health, poorly adapted infrastructure, poorly equipped health and emergency services. prepared or under-equipped.
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