During this session, he analyzed the evolution of the national and international economic situation, as well as the medium-term macroeconomic projections established by the Bank.
Internationally, the Council noted that the global economy continues to be generally resilient, but its outlook is surrounded by a high level of uncertainties. These are mainly linked to conflicts and geopolitical tensions, as well as to the measures announced by the new American Administration and the consequences of their implementation. As for inflation, after the sharp deceleration recorded over the last two years, it continues to converge towards the objectives of central banks, particularly in the main advanced economies, although at an irregular pace.
At the national level, the Council first reviewed the new data available since its last meeting, and focused in particular on those of the 2025 Finance Law and the three-year budget programming 2025-2027 which highlight a Government’s desire to continue consolidating macroeconomic balances.
The Council then discussed the Bank’s medium-term projections which count on an improvement in the pace of non-agricultural activities, notably thanks to the various large-scale projects launched or planned. On the other hand, agricultural production remains dependent on climatic conditions which remain largely uncertain.
At the same time, after the deceleration that began in the second quarter of 2023, inflation continues to evolve at low levels and should end this year with an average rate of around 1%, after 6.1% recorded in 2023. It should remain moderate at medium term, standing, according to Bank Al-Maghrib projections, at 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Likewise, its component underlying price trend, which reflects the fundamental trend in prices, should continue its deceleration, falling from 5.6% in 2023 to 2.1% this year, then to 2% in 2025 and to 1.8% in 2026. The Council also noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored. Indeed, the latest data from Bank Al-Maghrib’s quarterly survey of financial sector experts indicate that the latter expect an average rate of 2.3% for the 8-quarter horizon and 2.4 % for that of 12 quarters.
Regarding the transmission of its decisions, after the reduction in the key rate carried out last June, lending rates showed a quarterly drop of 22 bp, covering a decline of 25 bp for businesses and virtual stability for individuals. . 2
Given the evolution of inflation at levels in line with the objective of price stability and in view of the strong uncertainties surrounding the medium-term outlook, particularly at the international level, theThe Council decided to reduce the key rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. It will continue to monitor developments very closely and will base its decisions meeting by meeting on the basis of the most up-to-date data.
At the national level, Bank Al-Maghrib’s projections expect quasi-stability in non-agricultural growth of around 3.5% in 2024 before improving to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. its part, suffering from the unfavorable climatic conditions which prevailed during the previous campaign, the agricultural added value would show a decline of 4.6% this year, before displaying, under the hypothesis cereal harvests of 50 million quintals equivalent to the average of the last 5 years, increases of 5.7% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. In total, the growth of the national economy should be limited to 2 .6% this year, after 3.4% in 2023, but would accelerate to 3.9% over the next two years.
