The waltz of withdrawals ended this Tuesday, at 6 p.m., the deadline for submitting applications. The poster for the second round of the legislative elections on July 7 is now known. The verdict: there will be ten three-way races in Brittany. An unprecedented number, caused by the breakthrough of the RN, which has qualified its candidates almost everywhere in the region. Now, let’s make predictions: who is able to win in the 26 Breton constituencies still to be decided? In 19 of them, the tide seems difficult to turn. A good number of the outgoing deputies are on the verge of being re-elected. In the others, however, it would take a clever person to predict the result.
In Brest-Centre, what will the revenge bring?
We take (almost) the same people and start again. As in 2022, the Brest-centre constituency will see the left-wing candidate, Pierre-Yves Cadalen, and the independent incumbent MP, Jean-Charles Larsonneur, face off. With, this time, a party pooper: the RN Denis Kervella. But the match will be played between the two former competitors. The rebellious Cadalen came out on top in the first round, with 35.3% of the vote. Larsonneur, for his part, qualified by the skin of his teeth (18.5%) and can count on the votes of the Ensemble candidate (17%), who was eliminated. On paper, these two blocs are on an equal footing. The referees of the game: LR voters (2.7%), those of the eco-centrist candidate (2.1%) and the abstainers. The counting promises to be as thrilling as two years ago: Larsonneur won in the final minutes, with only 118 ballots ahead.
In Finistère, suspense for two outgoing Macronists
One is an outgoing MP for Morlaix, the other for Douarnenez-Pont-L’Abbé. And their situations are as similar as two peas in a pod. Sandrine Le Feur and Liliana Tanguy, candidates for Ensemble, came second in their constituency, a few dozen votes behind the New Popular Front. And, in both cases, the RN is lying in wait, just a few points behind. To win these three-way races, each hopes to capture the voters of the Les Républicains party. Some of whom could, on the contrary, abstain or opt for Bardella’s candidates. To what extent? This is one of the keys to the election. For their part, the left-wing candidates, without large reserves of votes, still have a chance. Provided they mobilize those who did not vote in the first round.
In Pontivy, the RN faces the Republican barrier
In Brittany, this is the constituency where the RN has the greatest probability of electing a deputy. In Pontivy (56), Antoine Oliviero came out on top on June 30. Far ahead of the outgoing Macronist deputy, Nicole Le Peih. Thanks to the withdrawal of the NFP candidate, she starts with an advantage. However, there are many questions. Is the left-wing electorate ready to throw the resentment into the river by, once again, putting a Macronist ballot in the ballot box? Another unknown, this time on the right, which brought together 12% of the constituency’s voters. The latter could just as well be a reserve of votes for Ensemble as for the RN.
In Lorient, the NFP and Ensemble neck and neck
On July 7, eyes will also be on the Lorient constituency. The game is set to be tough: NFP candidate Damien Girard came out on top in the first round with 35% of the vote… and only 531 ballots ahead of the outgoing Ensemble MP, Lysiane Métayer. In this three-way race, RN Aurélie Le Goff is left behind. The lead is therefore slightly to the left, which has a small reserve in the Lutte Ouvrière candidate. However, nothing is decided: Lysiane Métayer can still win the seat, by mobilizing even a tiny part of the 30% of abstainers.
LFI versus RN: two uncertain duels
In Brittany, the two outgoing LFI deputies are facing headwinds. After the withdrawal of the Macronist candidates, Murielle Lepvraud, in the constituency of Guingamp (22), and Mathilde Hignet, in that of Redon (35), find themselves alone facing the RN. In these rural areas, Marine Le Pen’s party finished first. The fate of these two seats is in the hands of centrist voters. How many will “block” on July 7, by voting for the left? How many will refuse to choose between “the two extremes”? On paper, the “republican front” gives the advantage to the two NFP candidates. But this situation is unprecedented in Brittany and makes any prediction risky.
