Young people vote for the New Popular Front
According to the Ipsos Talan poll for France Télévisions, Radio France and LCP, young people are the ones who vote the most for the New Popular Front: 48% for 18-24 year-olds and 38% for 25-34 year-olds. It should be noted, however, that young people also vote in large numbers for the RN: 33% of 18-24 year-olds and 32% of 25-34 year-olds. The older the electorate, the more its vote shifts towards the far right: 36% of RN votes among 35-49 year-olds and 40% among 50-59 year-olds. The over-60s are the ones who vote the most for the centrists and the LR, traditionally seen as guarantees of political stability: it is thus among the over-70s that Ensemble achieves its highest score, at 32%.
Voting no longer really has a gender
The differences between men and women do not really carry over into the voting booth, since the orders of magnitude between the different parties remain the same depending on the gender of the person concerned, as shown by the Ipsos Talan survey. Only RN voters show a slight gender difference, of only 4 points: 36% of men vote for the far right, compared to 32% of women.
The RN of small towns against the NFP of metropolises
Small towns vote massively for the RN: 40% of residents of urban areas with fewer than 2,000 inhabitants choose to vote for the RN, 39% of those with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. On the contrary, 33% of residents of large cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants vote for the New Popular Front.
The most precarious vote RN, the most qualified NFP
Various analyses revealed in this Ipsos Talan survey reveal to what extent we vote primarily according to our social category, which is conditioned by our level of education, our income and our profession. The most precarious categories, unemployed, workers or low income are those who vote the most for the RN. Thus, 40% of unemployed people will turn to an RN vote and 37% for the New Popular Front. 38% of people earning less than 1250 euros per month and 57% of workers choose an RN ballot. 49% of people with a level of education below the baccalaureate choose the RN, as do 54% of the so-called disadvantaged classes.
A vote that diminishes the higher the social category: 34% of executives and 35% of intermediate professions vote NFP. As for the so-called “well-off” circles, they vote neck and neck for the NFP (28%) and for Ensemble (27%). The high income categories also turn towards: those who earn more than 3,000 euros per month are 32% to choose the RN before the NFP at 26%. The NFP is full among the most qualified people: 37% among holders of a bac + 3, the same category where the RN has the lowest score (22%).
As for retirees, they tend to choose the RN (31%) or Ensemble (29%).
Deeply rooted partisan beliefs among LFI supporters
The left-wing convictions of LFI supporters are very deeply rooted: this is the only category surveyed with 0% voting for Ensemble candidates and 0% voting for the RN and only 1% for an LR candidate. It should be noted that people who feel no partisan sympathy turn 30% to the RN and 21% to the New Popular Front.
The RN bulletin for those most unhappy with their situation
The ballot as a way to express one’s discontent? This is what the survey seems to indicate, which asked respondents to analyze their satisfaction with their own life. People indicating that they are not satisfied with their life choose to vote 50% for the RN. Note that the most satisfied choose 25% for Ensemble, yet third behind the NFP (28%) and the RN (27%).
Religion as the great separator
Believers generally choose to vote for an RN candidate: Catholics at 41% and believers of another religion (without it being specified) turn to the RN at 39%. As for people claiming to have no religion, they vote at 39% for the NFP.
Ipsos Talan survey for France Télévisions, Radio France and Public Sénat, carried out from June 27 to 28, 2024 using the quota method.
