The overall three-year budgetary programming for the period 2025-2027, issued by the Ministry of Finance, forecasts GDP growth of 4.6% in 2025 compared to 3.3% expected in 2024 under the assumptions of the 2025 Finance Law. GDP growth would rise to 4.1% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.
Although forecasts remain exposed to geopolitical and climatic repercussions, the overall three-year budgetary programming for the period 2025-2027 issued by the Ministry of the Economy and Finance expects GDP growth of 4.6% in 2025 compared to 3. 3% expected in 2024, under the assumptions of the 2025 Finance Law, but also, up to 4.1% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.
The establishment of these medium-term forecasts is based on provisional data from the national accounts for the year 2023, as well as recent economic developments, both at the national and international level. Agriculture contributes significantly to this growth, according to forecasts established for 2025 when growth in agricultural value should stand at 11%.
And this, thanks, on the one hand, to an agricultural year which looks promising, and, on the other hand, to the continued dynamism of non-agricultural activities which should further consolidate their evolution to reach 3.7%, benefiting of the resumption of foreign demand addressed to Morocco.
Thus, sectoral dynamics should further strengthen with growth rates of 3.9% for the secondary sector and 3.6% for the tertiary sector while inflation is forecast at 2% over the next three years. Under these conditions, the inflation rate should be contained at 1.3% on average for the year 2024 compared to 6.1% in 2023, before being around 2% in 2025.
Increase in ordinary revenue
The other fact worth noting is the continued increase in ordinary revenue for the 2025-2027 period. This trend will reflect an improvement in tax, domestic and customs revenues, as well as non-tax revenues, with an increase of 9.7% in 2025 compared to updated forecasts for 2024, of 4.5% in 2026 and stabilization at the same level. in 2027.
For tax revenues, they should continue to grow steadily over the next three years, reflecting the expected impact of the reforms introduced as part of the framework law on tax reform. In 2025, they are estimated at MAD 320.1 billion, an increase of 12% compared to the closing forecasts for 2024.
In 2026, revenues are expected to reach MAD 338.6 billion, recording a more moderate increase of 5.8% compared to 2025. Regarding 2027, they are projected at MAD 354.8 billion, marking an increase of 4.8%. . These forecasts are based on the assumptions of the macroeconomic framework and the intrinsic specificities of the different revenue items to be forecast. They also take into account the exceptional developments observed and the budgetary impacts of the measures planned in accordance with the fundamental objectives of the framework law on tax reform.
On the demand side, growth should be supported in 2025 by domestic demand with a contribution of 3.9 percentage points. In this development, household consumption should contribute 1.6 points to GDP growth, against a backdrop of expected improvement in agricultural income and easing of pressures on household purchasing power, linked to salary increases and the deployment of the direct social assistance program. At the same time, public administration consumption should contribute 1.1 points, while gross fixed capital formation should contribute 0.8 points to growth.
Projections from EEPs on the rise
For non-tax revenue, the projections from public establishments and enterprises (EEP) for the years 2025, 2026 and 2027 amount, respectively, to 22.6 billion dirhams, 21.6 billion dirhams and 16.9 billion dirhams. Note that the drop forecast for 2027 is explained in particular by the importance of the envelope dedicated to accelerating the investment programs of certain EEPs.
These projections could evolve in light of the implementation of the provisions contained in the framework law relating to the reform of the EEP aimed at strengthening the role of the State as shareholder and rationalizing the management of the public portfolio by placing emphasis on its performance, in particular through the operationalization of the “National Agency for the strategic management of State participations and monitoring of the performance of public establishments and enterprises (ANGSPE)”.
Concerning innovative financing, new active management operations of State assets are planned for amounts of 35 billion dirhams in 2025 and 2026 and 25 billion dirhams in 2027. The real estate assets to be sold are defined gradually as the results are obtained. work carried out in terms of scoping, assessment of assets and preparation of the corresponding contractual documentation.
Regarding revenues from the sale of State participations, they should represent an amount of 6 billion dirhams per year over the period 2025-2027. Furthermore, economic activity should benefit from the improvement in the international environment and the continuation of the dynamic initiated by reform projects and major strategic projects in the areas of water and transport, in particular , as well as those linked to the organization of the 2025 African Cup of Nations and the 2030 World Cup.
Yassine Saber / ECO Inspirations
