Less than two weeks after his election as President of the United States, Donald Trump will not be present at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Monday November 18 and Tuesday November 19. While the Republican puts together his government before taking office on January 20, 2025, it is Joe Biden who must bid farewell to his counterparts from the twenty main economic powers on the planet.
From one president to another, the shadow of the next tenant of the White House will hang over the summit, the G20 being more than ever the scene of rivalries between the rich states of the North and the emerging states of the South. A body that the prospect of the former Republican president’s return to power promises to electrify, at a time when there are already many areas of contention, against a backdrop of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The summit host, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is particularly concerned. After having given up on welcoming Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is the subject of an arrest warrant for war crimes from the International Criminal Court, of which Brazil is a State party, Lula intends to concentrate on economic and climate issues rather than the conflict in Ukraine. He should be helped in this task by Western leaders, who fear that Donald Trump’s victory will accelerate the fragmentation of the world.
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Thus, as a prelude to the G20, Emmanuel Macron made a short visit to Argentina, for dinner, Saturday November 16, with President Javier Milei, an ultraliberal close to Donald Trump, criticized for his climate skeptic positions. The objective stated by the Elysée is to “connect Javier Milei to the priorities of the G20”. The head of state is due to meet Lula face-to-face on Sunday evening, then Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday evening, and China’s Xi Jinping on Tuesday morning.
There is no doubt that behind the scenes the war in Ukraine risks entering into discussions, while Westerners differ on whether or not to speak to Vladimir Putin. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with the master of the Kremlin on Friday, but Emmanuel Macron judges that the time has not yet come to reconnect with him, at a time when Russia is increasing its strikes on Ukrainian territory to push his advantage. Also at a time when Donald Trump and his entourage are threatening to reduce their military support for kyiv.
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