The S&P500 looks good at 6000 points for the weekend

Wall Street has just experienced a third session of progress in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the American presidential election. Would the situation have been different if the opposing side had won? I leave the answer to those who have divinatory talents, marabout, pythia, voodoo or even cosmic Christ. At the moment, everyone is beautiful and dynamic. Even the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, thinks that the Republican's return to the White House at the beginning of next year will not have many short-term consequences. He said this last night alongside the announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut, as expected. The basic cost of money in the United States is falling back to the 4.50 to 4.75% range. However, monetary policy remains restrictive, Powell recalled, while recognizing that the economy is doing quite well and that inflation expectations are moderate at this stage. In other words, everything is going pretty well.

Asked about his personal situation, the president of the Fed did not shirk by affirming that he would not resign even if Donald Trump asked him to do so. These two have a complicated relationship to say the least. It was Donald who appointed Jerome during his first term, without imagining that Jerome would place the independence of the institution above the directives of the President of the United States. There were subsequently some tasty exchanges between the two men.

While waiting to know if the games will resume, investors are instead putting their trust in Trump's pro-business guidelines. The most followed index on Wall Street, the S&P500, is on the verge of 6000 points after a gain of 0.8% yesterday. I remember looking for an illustration for crossing 4000 points in April 2021. Since then, the 5000 were erased last February, and the 6000 are within session range. It took 16 years (between 1998 and 2014) for the S&P500 to go from 1000 to 2000 points, then 5 more years for it to reach 3000 points (July 26, 2019). The index is therefore on the verge of doubling in just over 5 years. As my neighbor Emile would say, “Yes, idiot, it's normal that we pass them more quickly, these symbolic levels, it only takes 20% to go from 5000 to 6000 while it takes 66% to go from 3000 to 5000. We teach you nothing at the slobbery school?“.

Even Europe ended up getting caught up in it. The day before, the signs from the old continent had pretended to be enthusiastic about the Republican victory, before picking up in style. Yesterday, they got back on track. The German DAX (+1.7%) particularly shone after the breakup of the ruling coalition, which could lead to a motion of censure. The market is betting on a strengthening of the conservatives with a recovery plan. The French CAC40 took advantage of a return to favor in its luxury compartment to enjoy a nice rise, despite the plunge of Legrand after disappointing quarterly quarters and the decline of the banking sector, carried away by mediocre figures from Crédit Agricole. However, we always navigate the Parisian market somewhat by sight.

There have been quite a few company results announcements since last night. Some disappointments in the United States in particular (The Trade Desk, Airbnb, Pinterest, Capri, etc.) and emblematic companies in Europe, such as Compagnie Financière Richemont in luxury, whose figures are a little short but without much surprise compared to the competition.

In China, the political-financial reaction to the return of Donald Trump is unique: the market knows that strengthening the walls against Chinese exports is on the agenda, but it hopes that this will force Beijing to increase its support measures . The result is a sort of vague theory according to which all this could benefit Chinese markets. Despite a small contraction on this Friday session, the MSCI China index gained 3.5% over the week, the best performance of the last five weeks. The Chinese parliament is due to approve major spending later today, according to rumors circulating.

In Asia Pacific, the Japanese TOPIX closed moderately lower. South Korea and India are down slightly. It is more dynamic in Taiwan (+0.6%) and especially in Australia (+0.8%) where mining and financial companies are on the rise. European leading indicators are slightly bullish.

The CAC40 starts the session up 0.2% to 7,437 points. The SMI is stable to slightly bullish at 11,920 points. The Bel20 is up 0.2% to 4,282 points.

Today's economic highlights

In the United States, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (4:00 p.m.) will generate interest. The whole agenda here.

The main changes in recommendations

• Adecco: Jefferies remains to be retained with a reduced price target of 31 to 29 CHF.
• Air France-KLM: Barclays maintains its market weighting recommendation and reduces the price target from 9 to 8.50 EUR.
• Amadeus: JP Morgan maintains its recommendation to overweight with a price target raised from 67 to 73 EUR.
• ArcelorMittal: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 23 to 23.50 EUR. JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 21 to 23 EUR.
• Barry Callebaut: Bank Vontobel AG maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target raised from 1350 to 1600 CHF. Stifel maintains its purchase recommendation with a reduced price target of 1750 to 1700 CHF.
• Capgemini: Stifel maintains its purchase recommendation with a price target reduced from 245 to 225 EUR.
• Engie: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the price target from 18 EUR to 17.50 EUR.
• Equasens: Stifel maintains its purchase recommendation with a price target reduced from 83 to 75 EUR.
• Eurazeo: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 80 to 83 EUR.
• Exosens: Bernstein maintains its outperformance recommendation with a price target raised from 25.50 to 28.50 EUR.
• JCDecaux: Barclays maintains its recommendation to overweight with a reduced price target of 26 to 25 EUR.
• KBC Group: Redburn Atlantic maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 77.59 to 81.164 EUR.
• Legrand: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from 105 to 100 EUR.
• Nemetschek: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the price target from 108 to 125 EUR. Bernstein maintains its market performance recommendation with a price target raised from 90 to 113 EUR.
• Renault: Barclays maintains its recommendation to overweight with a price target reduced from 47.50 to 45 EUR.
• Rheinmetall: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its outperformance recommendation with a price target raised from 585 to 640 EUR.
• Saint-Gobain: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target raised from 75 to 87 EUR.
• Sensirion: Stifel maintains its recommendation to hold with a reduced price target of 75 to 68 CHF.
• SES SA: Barclays maintains its recommendation to overweight with a price target reduced from 5.35 to 4.75 EUR.
• Solvay: Deutsche Bank maintains its recommendation to hold with a reduced price target of 39 to 37 EUR.
• Swiss Re: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the price target from 135 to 160 CHF.
• Syensqo: Deutsche Bank maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target raised from 85 to 87 EUR.
• UBS Group Ag: Grupo Santander maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 26.15 to 27.60 CHF.
• Var Energi: ABG goes from buy to hold by targeting 40 NOK.
• Verallia: Berenberg goes from buying to holding by aiming for 30 EUR.

In France

Important announcements (and less important… I should point out that the information is given immediately before the opening and does not prejudge the color of the shares during the session)

• LVMH HR Director Chantal Gaemperle, 17 years at the house, was allegedly fired after several months of investigation, revealed La Lettre.
• For AlphaValue, a merger between Carrefour and Jeronimo Martins would make sense.
• Stellantis will again stop production at the Mirafiori factory for at least another month in December, according to Milano Finanza.
• ArcelorMittal could increase its steel production in Ukraine if the situation stabilizes.
• Euronext revises its turnover target upwards and announces a 2027 plan.
• Aperam is targeting an increase in its Ebitda in Q4 compared to a Q3 above expectations.
• Nexans sells its North American subsidiary AmerCable to Mattr for $280 million.
• Bureau Veritas issues €500 million over 7 years at 3.125%.
• Atos launches a capital increase of 233 million euros.
• Moody's gives La Française des Jeux a long-term credit rating of Baa1, outlook stable.
• JCDecaux anticipates “moderate single-digit” organic growth in the fourth quarter.
• Ayvens (Société Générale) would interest buyers like Blackstone, according to Bloomberg.
• GL Events sells CCC.
• Bonduelle confirms its sales and current operating profit objectives.
• Fleury Michon sells its meal trays in Ile-de-France.
• Valbiotis will market Valbiotis PRO Metabolic Health in February-March 2025 on the French market.
• Predilife spins off its subsidiary Mammorisk on the basis of a valuation of €202 million.
• The main publications of the day : Equasens, Akwel, Aurea, Vantiva, Hexaom, Genfit, NRJ, Avenir Telecom, Wallix, LNA Santé, IT Link, Prismaflex, Banijay, Ramsay Generale de Santé, Delta Plus, Lacroix, Winfarm, Transgène… The rest here.

In the big world

Important (and not so important) announcements

D’Europe

From North America

• Companies which progress outside the session after their quarterly: Axon (+11%), Expedia (+5%), Lucid (+5%), Rivian (+2%)…
• Companies that decline outside the session after their quarterly: Pinterest (-12.6%), The Trade Desk (-10%), Capri (-7%), Cloudflare (-6.5%), DraftKings (-6%), Airbnb (-5%), Arista (-4%), Fortinet (-4%), Monster Beverage (-3%), Block (-2%)…
• Boeing will pay the salaries of unemployed workers, according to Air Current.
• BlackRock is in talks to acquire a minority stake in hedge fund Millennium, according to the FT.
• According to the WSJ, Icahn plans to increase his stake in oil refiner CVR Energy.
• Procter & Gamble and Unilever face risks under Trump's proposed tariffs on Mexico.
• The main publications of the day : Constellation Software, TELUS Corporation, Baxter International, NRG Energy, RB Global, CNH Industrial…

From Asia Pacific and beyond

• Nissan shares collapsed after announcing the layoff of 9,000 people, the 20% reduction in production capacity and the plan to sell part of its stake in Mitsubishi Motors.
• Sony's operating profit jumped 42% in the first half.
• KKR becomes Fuji Soft's largest shareholder after successful tender offer.
• Kioxia is expected to file a registration statement for its December IPO in Tokyo, Reuters has learned.
• The main publications of the day : Sony, State Bank of India, SoftBank Corp, MediaTek, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, Tata Motors, SMIC, Quanta Computer, Olympus Corporation, Suzuki Motor…

The rest of the global publications calendar here.

Lectures