This is a major Cévennes episode which takes place in the south-east between Wednesday and Thursday. Due to a depression and the remnants of ex-Hurricane Leslie, the atmosphere is loaded with a large amount of humidity: heavy rains already started to fall on Wednesday morning, but the reactivation of the episode, scheduled for this Thursday, risks leading to a catastrophic situation. By Thursday evening, rainfall totals will reach:
- 200 to 300 mm generalized on the Cévennes relief, with peaks of 300 to 400 mm possible;
- 80 to 120 mm in the Var and the Alpes Maritimes;
- 60 to 80 mm from northern Occitanie to Burgundy or towards the Basque Country.
In the south-east, cumulative rainfall will represent the equivalent of a month of rain, or more, in the space of two days.
A high-risk night with stationary thunderstorms
During this episode of bad weather which will last 48 hours, the period which requires the most monitoring and vigilance is the night from Wednesday to Thursday: the rains will intensify, with violent thunderstormsthunderstorms. Some of these storms can be stationary and give rise to very high intensities in a short time: 20 to 30 mm possible in the space of an hour.
Improvement will occur between Thursday evening and Friday morning, although conditions weather reportweather report will still remain wet over a large part of the country.
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