Fiery outsider bets from 30.08. to 01.09.2024

Football underdog tips this weekend

On the upcoming matchday, we have some very high Bundesliga outsider odds on the betting slip with Münster and SC Freiburg.

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Hamburger SV – Preußen Münster – clear value bet on the guests!

The 2. Bundesliga underdog prediction on Münster at odds of 7.10 from the tested bookmaker Neobet stands out this weekend in my opinion. In my opinion, the promoted team is given too little chance in the match against one of the big favorites for promotion. Although Münster has only managed to score a single point so far, their performances so far are nowhere near as bad as the results suggest. They were by no means the inferior team against Hanover and Kaiserslautern; in particular, the 0:0 against Hanover can be seen as a benchmark for the match against HSV. In my opinion, the Prussians even deserved to win this game.

Can Münster score its first win of the season?

The Hamburgers have started the season anything but optimallyAfter the defeat at Hannover last weekend, the points tally of just four points from three match days is not satisfactory. However, HSV’s performances should be more worrying: the second half of the home game against Hertha was already weak, and the performance at Hannover continued that. HSV is certainly the stronger team on paper, but Münster’s fast counterattackers could put the hosts under pressure. The pressure of having to score three points in order not to get off to a bad start to the season is unlikely to make things any easier for HSV.

My predicted xG values ​​of 1.95 to 1.2 see the fair odds for the away win at 4.35, which is why Neobet’s 7.10 offers us clear value here.

Copenhagen – Brondby – good underdog odds in the top game!

This weekend we are expecting a top match in Denmark. I see both teams currently playing at a similarly high level as last season, which is why I think Copenhagen’s status as favourites is clearly exaggerated. It was already clear in the duels last season that the visiting team was able to steal the three points. This did not happen by chance, but is due to the self-image of both teams that they have to actively shape the game in front of their own fans. However, since both teams have strong counter-attackers, an offensive style of play by the hosts can be extremely dangerous.

Will the guests win again?

My Copenhagen vs. Brondby betting tip is therefore on the visitors at odds of 3.5 at Bet365. Information about the Bet365 voucher code can be found in the linked article. The xG value forecast also sees the hosts only slightly favored with a ratio of 1.75 to 1.49, which is why the value is on the visitors’ side (fair odds 3.05).

Both teams have had a mixed start to the season, each winning just three of their first six games. This match is therefore important not only because of the popularity of both sets of fans, but could also play a major role in the rest of the season.

Bayern Munich – SC Freiburg – The guests are underestimated!

Yes, the 1.Bundesliga underdog tip on Freiburg at odds of 11.5 will not be won very often. Nevertheless, we have to ask ourselves whether the guests can manage to win at least ten out of 100 games in view of the current state of both teams in order to make a long-term profitable bet. My xG value forecast answers this question with “YES”. xGs of 3.4 to 1.28 in favor of Bayern are expected. This corresponds to a fair odds of 9.7 on Freiburg. The hosts certainly have significantly better chances of winning at almost 77%, but from a betting point of view a bet on the underdogs makes sense in this duel.

A game with potential for surprises

FC Bayern came away from the first league match against Wolfsburg with a black eye. The Wolves turned a 0:1 deficit into a 2:1 win after a first half dominated by Munich. It should be alarming that this also happened to the Munich team on one or two occasions last season. In the end, however, Bayern were able to secure their first three points of the season thanks to their individual class. Nevertheless: From the old “Mia san Mia”-matter of course is not much left.

After a sleepy start, Freiburg showed an outstanding performance against the favorites from Stuttgart and deservedly won 3-1. The offense was already stronger than expected in the 4-0 cup match against Osnabrück. While this could still be put down to a “third division” defense, VfB also fell victim to Freiburg’s fireworks. Such a performance could also pose problems for Bayern. With the Bwin voucher you can replay this outsider tip risk-free.