Activity in the real estate markets continues to increase, which confirms a recovery after a very difficult year 2023.
The resumption of activity is notable in the market for existing apartments (with a number of transactions up 44.2% in this segment compared to the 3rd quarter of 2023) and in that of existing houses (+64% over the same period). period). However, activity still remains limited in the apartments under construction (VEFA) segment: 144 transactions in the 3rd quarter of 2024, for a total financial volume slightly above 125 million euros.
The number of transactions still remains almost 4 times lower than the average of the years preceding the sharp drop in activity in 2023 (570 sales of apartments under construction in the 3rd quarter on average over the years 2017 to 2022).
The hedonic index of housing sales prices provided by Statec (including both existing housing and housing under construction) confirms the slowdown in the fall in prices which was suggested since the start of 2024: the aggregate index is stable over the quarter (+0.2% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2024) and only slightly down over twelve months (-1.7% between the 3rd quarter of 2023 and the 3rd quarter 2024).
For existing apartments, the hedonic index is stable this quarter (-0.1% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2024). The price drop is still visible over twelve months (-3.6% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2023), but this drop is driven exclusively by the fourth quarter of 2023.
In the existing homes segment, we observed an increase in prices over the quarter (+2% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2024), after a slight drop in the previous quarter (-0.7%). More generally, prices of existing homes are stable over twelve months (+0.3% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2023).
On the other hand, in the segment of apartments under construction (VEFA), we observe a drop in prices over the quarter (-2.5% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2024), which is very close to the developments noted over twelve months (-2 .6% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2023).
But developments in this segment remain very volatile, since the number of transactions here is very limited, and the market is then subject to strong composition effects.
More furnished rooms
Advertised apartment rents fell slightly over the quarter (-1.6% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2024), but they remain up +3.6% over twelve months (compared to the 3rd quarter of 2023). This increase in announced apartment rents over twelve months is thus significantly higher than that of consumer prices measured by the IPCN (+1.6%) over the same period.
Note that consumer price inflation has decelerated significantly in recent months, after remaining prolonged above +3% over twelve months.
In the rather specific segment of rental of furnished rooms, which currently represents around 17% of the total rental supply, the increase in announced rents is higher: +4.5% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2023. It should be noted that These are the rents requested by lessors for new rental contracts.
The increase in rents during the lease (for tenants who do not change accommodation) is relatively moderate. It is today very similar to inflation on consumer goods, according to Statec statistics: +1.7% for the rent index between the 3rd quarter of 2023 and the 3rd quarter of 2024, against +1, 6% for consumer price inflation measured by the IPCN.
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