Mike Dolan provides an update on the US and global markets for the day ahead.
Although the Federal Reserve’s “hawkish cut” on Thursday was widely expected, markets are now concerned that 4% policy rates will be the floor for at least the next year – and that there will be no further easing before mid-year or later.
The picture painted by the Fed removes the monetary easing that propped up the stock market for months and sent the dollar to its highest level in more than two years, outweighing emerging, developed and crypto currencies.
By raising their median inflation forecast for next year by 0.3 percentage points, to 2.5%, but increasing GDP growth by only a tenth, to 2.1%, officials of monetary policy also raised their key rate forecasts for the next two years by half a point, to 3.9% and 3.4% respectively.
And they raised the longer-term horizon too, with projections for the long-term neutral rate pushed to 3% for the first time since 2018.
“It’s a new phase and we’re going to be cautious about further cuts,” Chairman Jerome Powell said after the Fed announced the widely expected quarter-point cut to a range of 4.25-4 .50%.
Markets have followed suit, and futures don’t forecast another quarter-point cut until June at the earliest – and they doubt there will be more by the end of the year .
Treasury bonds, already badly affected, were hit again, with 10-year and 30-year yields reaching 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively, their highest level since May. The 2-10 year yield curve has steepened to reach its highest level in three months.
Concerns about the debt ceiling have returned to the forefront, adding to the anxiety. President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday disrupted bipartisan efforts to avert a government shutdown by pressuring congressional Republicans to reject a transition bill aimed at keeping the government funded beyond the end of the week.
This cocktail of events has not brought cheerfulness to a historically expensive stock market, which has already seen its momentum slow and which increasingly fears the almost uncontested optimism of investors for 2025. Some now believe that most of the positive post-election fiscal and economic scenario, as well as the theme of American “exceptionalism”, have already been taken into account.
The benchmark S&P500 and Dow Jones indexes posted their biggest one-day percentage declines since the start of August, while the Nasdaq saw its biggest decline since July. The Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 4.4%, its biggest decline since June 2022.
Even though it remains up 12% since the start of 2024, the Dow Jones experienced its tenth consecutive session of decline, the longest series of daily losses since 1974.
Additionally, shares of Idaho-based Micron Technology fell 15% in after-hours trading after missing quarterly revenue and profit estimates, weak demand for consumer products such as computers personal devices and smartphones which affected the activities of the electronic chip manufacturer.
Casting a veil over the end of the year, the VIX volatility index jumped 11.75 points to close at 27.62, its highest level in four months, although it again approached 20 during the night.
Stock futures are also trying to recoup some of the losses suffered on Thursday.
But the Fed was just the most high-profile central bank in a flood of other year-end policy decisions around the world.
The Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since July against an inflated dollar after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged and offered few clues on when it might raise borrowing costs .
Sterling posted a bumper gain against the dollar and euro, with the Bank of England expected to maintain borrowing rates later on Thursday and be as upbeat as the Fed.
Better-than-expected wages and inflation data this week reinforced the UK’s optimistic outlook, despite signs of an alarming collapse in manufacturing – UK government 10-year borrowing premiums compared to Germany having reached their highest level since 1990.
Elsewhere, the Norwegian central bank also maintained its key rates. Sweden’s Riksbanks cut rates as expected, but also advocated a more cautious approach for next year.
In Brazil, concerns are growing over the fiscal and monetary balance, as the Brazilian real experienced its biggest fall in more than two years, reaching a new record low on Wednesday, and stocks and bonds fell. came under pressure as financial markets tested the Brazilian government’s spending plans and its growing deficit.
Many see the currency’s plunge following sharp interest rate hikes from the central bank this week and rising bond yields as a wake-up call.
In the United States, election-winning bitcoin was briefly pushed back below $100,000 due to the dollar’s post-Fed rally, but regained that figure on Thursday.
Key developments expected to provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:
* Bank of England decision and statement; the Central Bank of Brazil publishes a report on inflation, the Central Bank of Mexico publishes a report on inflation.
* 3rd quarter US GDP revision, 3rd quarter corporate profits, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Federal Reserve December business survey, November existing home sales, Kansas City Fed survey on manufacturing industry, October TIC data on US Treasury holdings abroad.
* The US Treasury sells 5-year inflation-protected securities.
* Results of American companies: FedEx, Nike, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Darden Restaurants, Accenture, Carmax, Factset, Paychex, Cintas.
* European Union Summit in Brussels
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