Russian military bases in Syria: What will happen to Africa Corps if Russia loses them?

The sudden overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad and the collapse of his regime has shaken the Middle East. More than 2,000 kilometers away, the Kremlin faces a problem.

The fate of Russian troops in the Africa Corps, which provides military support to many countries in the Sahel region, suddenly seems compromised. Moscow could lose its military bases in Syria.

In 2017, Moscow struck a deal with ousted President Assad, giving Russia the use of a naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus, free of charge for 49 years.

As a result, Russia has warships stationed in Tartus, an unknown number of nuclear-powered submarines, warehouses and hundreds of troops supporting military operations in the Middle East and Africa.

The two countries also agreed on a Russian air base near Latakia – about an hour north of Tartus – where Moscow has fighter jets, cargo planes and defensive missile systems.

Russia uses its bases in Syria to send weapons, fuel and personnel to its military operations across Africa, which it carries out through the Africa Corps and Wagner paramilitary groups.

From Syria, these supplies are then delivered to Russian bases in Libya, which serves as a convenient “springboard” for Moscow’s operations in Africa, according to Oliver Windridge, director of illicit finance policy at the investigative group The Sentry.

It is not yet clear whether Russia will manage to negotiate a deal with the rebel groups that overthrew Al Assad (to whom Putin granted asylum in Russia) and whether it will manage to retain its base in Syria.

“Every effort is being made to contact the people responsible for ensuring security and, of course, our servicemen are also taking all necessary precautions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters at Moscow.

Moscow has already started withdrawing ships from Tartus, Syria, according to satellite images analyzed by the BBC.

“This could mark the beginning of the end of the African footprint [de la Russie]” says Mr. Windridge.

Following a series of coups, the military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso ended their security partnerships with France and other Western countries, choosing instead to work with the Russia’s Africa Corps.

“Moscow has found a niche in supporting warlords, juntas and despots that the West has sanctioned or isolated due to staging coups, governance or human rights issues “, explains Alex Vines, researcher at the Chatham House Institute of Policy Studies.

Russian Africa Corps troops are now present on the ground in several West African countries: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Equatorial Guinea.

However, its largest deployment is in the Central African Republic, where “up to 2,000 troops helped thwart a coup, provide security and training, and develop commercial interests, including mining.” of gold mines and the sale of arms”, according to Mr. Vines.

Africa Corps also reportedly has a thousand men in Mali, less than a hundred in Burkina Faso and up to 800 men deployed in Equatorial Guinea to protect Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mabasogo, Africa’s longest-serving president.

If these troops lost their ability to quickly receive supplies from Moscow through Syria, African governments that rely on Russia for their defense could be vulnerable to attacks by rebels or insurgent groups.

A rare attack on Mali’s capital, Bamako, last September showed how vulnerable some cities could be. A spokesperson for the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) insurgent group has promised more attacks on city centers, the Institute for the Study of War reports.

Groups like JNIM are likely to analyze the situation in Syria and take advantage, according to Beverly Ochieng, a Senegal-based analyst for security firm Control Risks.

“We even saw Al-Qaeda groups in Mali celebrating the events in Syria,” says Beverly Ochieng.

Burkina Faso and Niger could find themselves in a similar vulnerable position, according to Moscow. Additional troops are present in the country to “ensure the security of the country’s leader, Ibrahim Traoré, and the people of Burkina Faso against terrorist attacks”, explains Ochieng.

The Kremlin could look elsewhere for a new base for its operations in Africa. Two countries are prime candidates: Libya and Sudan. Both offer opportunities but also risks for Africa Corps.

Ties between Russia and Libya are long-established, with a military presence of around 1,500 personnel according to data from the Polish Institute of International Affairs and the Bloomsbury Intelligence & Security Institute.

However, “Russia would have to establish a direct supply line between its own territory and Libya,” says Oliver Windridge of The Sentry: “its operations would become more complicated, more expensive and subject to stricter decision-making.”

For example, Turkish approval would be required for sea routes or for cargo flights crossing Turkish airspace, otherwise a refueling stopover would become inevitable.

Russia is also said to face opposition from Libya’s highest religious authority, Grand Mufti Dr Sadiq Al-Ghariani, who has compared the Russian presence in the country to that of former colonial powers.

The other option is Sudan, where Russia has sought to revive a 2017 deal to build a naval base near the coastal city of Port Sudan.

“It’s strategic because Russian influence is growing in the region from Sudan to Mali, which we call the coup belt,” says Ochieng.

However, the high level of violence and political instability caused by the ongoing civil war is likely to limit the scope of a military base in this region, at least for the moment.

Ultimately, it is the populations of Burkina Faso, Mali and other countries where Russian paramilitary forces are active who risk becoming more vulnerable if Russia loses its stronghold in Syria – and with it, the ability to adequately supply its Africa Corps.