With just over four weeks until Donald Trump returns to the White House, European leaders are beginning to form coalitions to ensure continued support for Ukraine in the event of future ceasefire talks.
On Wednesday, December 18, an informal dinner hosted by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Mark Rutte with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several European leaders helped ensure continued support to Ukraine in the coming months.
The informal discussions at Mark Rutte’s Brussels residence were attended by the German Olaf Scholz, the Italian Giorgia Meloni, the Dane Mette Fredriksen and the Pole Andrzej Duda, as well as the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the President of the European Council António Costa.
For his part, President Emmanuel Macron skipped dinner to go to the island of Mayotte, ravaged by a cyclone, while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was replaced by British Foreign Minister David Lammy.
Before the talks, Mark Rutte said Ukraine’s partners planned to maintain military aid to kyiv for ” All “ do — including providing air defense and other weapons systems — so that Ukraine is in the “best possible position one day, when it decides, to begin peace talks” with Russia.
One of the objectives of this meeting, at the initiative of Mark Rutte, was to “discuss continued support for Ukraine, particularly air defense”a NATO official told Euractiv.
Ukraine is awaiting delivery of promised air defense systems in July, and Volodymyr Zelensky explained earlier this week that 12 to 15 additional systems were needed.
The Ukrainian president also stressed that the numerous meetings in Brussels were a “excellent opportunity to talk about security guarantees for Ukraine”.
“It is really very important to use these two days in Brussels to adopt the same common position on how to secure Ukraine and strengthen ourselves,” reacted the Ukrainian leader.
“Europe needs a strong and united position to guarantee lasting peace”he added.
The diplomacy of calm
The assurances given by European partners on continued military support and strategic debates come shortly ahead of the return to the White House of recently re-elected US President Donald Trump next month, and fears that he will withdraw support for kyiv and does not force it to make concessions to Russia.
Donald Trump’s new envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is expected to visit kyiv and several other European capitals in early January, as the next administration plans to quickly end the war.
In recent weeks, Europeans have begun stepping up efforts to meet in different formats, keen to avoid being left out of possible future ceasefire talks.
“Everything that is decided should always involve Ukraine and should always include Ukraine […]and it should be the same for Europe”estimated the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kristen Michal, to Euractiv.
Kristen Michal, who received a group of Nordic and Baltic countries under the auspices of the United Kingdom in Tallinn this week, said he was “completely convinced that this type of information exchange is necessary.”
“But when it comes to making decisions, they must be made behind a table where all the leaders are present”he added.
Several NATO diplomats confirmed that in recent weeks, various formats and initiatives have examined the contribution of Europeans to Ukraine for the future, including when it comes to “emergency solutions” regarding a possible ceasefire.
EU officials have indicated they expect these formats, in different configurations, to continue over the coming weeks and months.
“We cannot always meet at 27, we need representatives”said one EU diplomat, while another added that “smaller groups would allow different solutions to be tested.”
In the case of the informal dinner and discussions on Thursday December 19 between the 27 and the Ukrainian president, EU diplomats stressed in advance that there was no question of inciting Volodymyr Zelensky to engage to make concessions of any kind.
European officials also clarified that discussions would instead focus on what can be done now to strengthen Ukraine rather than anticipating Donald Trump’s future actions.
On Thursday, EU leaders are expected to “reaffirm their support for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace […]and underline the principle that no initiative concerning Ukraine should be taken without Ukraine”according to the latest set of summit conclusions, consulted by Euractiv.
“It’s not written, but for most EU member states, nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine translates to ‘nothing about Europe without Europe’, and that’s a message that we must also convey to Washington”an EU diplomat told Euractiv.
EU leaders should also call for a “urgent intensification of efforts, including the delivery of air defense systems, munitions and missiles, as well as the provision of necessary training and equipment for Ukrainian brigades”.
They will also emphasize that the EU and its Member States “will maintain their intensive global outreach efforts and participate in discussions that affect Europe’s security.”
Peacekeeping force
Donald Trump has repeatedly made clear that he expects Europeans to take charge of Ukraine’s security and oversee any future ceasefire agreement between kyiv and Moscow.
Discussions have begun between some European capitals on the potential deployment of a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine to ensure a possible ceasefire. An initiative previously mentioned by Emmanuel Macron, but rejected so far by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
While kyiv still views NATO membership as the ultimate guarantee of its security, the peacekeeping force is seen as an intermediate solution.
According to people familiar with the discussions, Wednesday’s dinner was also a way to explore the willingness of some to create such a peacekeeping force for a possible future ceasefire.
While Volodymyr Zelensky previously confirmed the issue could be raised, Mark Rutte warned last week that he had asked his NATO and Ukrainian counterparts “to be a little more discreet” when they would talk about this kind of scenarios.
“Right now, if you are discussing all this in the open, why would Vladimir Putin sit down at the table since he gets what he wants”explained the NATO Secretary General.
European diplomats, briefed on the discussions, said it was unlikely that the “new version of ground troops” in Ukraine is garnering enough support to come to fruition for now, but that it could be revisited if more tangible signs of a post-war settlement emerge.
Several also warned that the EU27 format would not be the right format for discussing such options, and that these should first be discussed in smaller groups and different training courses before arriving at a real concept.
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