New York (awp/afp) – The dollar further gained ground against most major currencies on Wednesday, helped by a less accommodating monetary policy than elsewhere, a resilient economy but also the prospect of the presidential election in the United States. United.
Around 8:40 p.m. GMT, the greenback gained 0.33% against the single currency, to 1.0857 dollars per euro. Earlier, it recorded a new two-month high of $1.0856.
It also pushed the yen and pound sterling, as well as more volatile currencies like the Swedish crown and the Hungarian forint, into a corner.
As for several weeks, the “greenback”, one of the nicknames of the United States currency, continues to benefit from the measured speech of members of the American central bank (Fed), who rule out any precipitation in the American monetary trajectory.
Recent indicators also demonstrate a still solid American economy, with a stock market at record highs, which encourages investment in the United States.
But in the absence of new major macroeconomic data this week and in a context of slight decline in American bond rates in recent days, the “buck”, another pet name for the dollar, has found another catalyst, as the presidential election, November 5.
“Several publications that cover hedge funds report that they are buying dollars because if Trump wins, he sees (the currency) going up,” said Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex.
This movement is linked to the recent rise of the Republican candidate in the polls, barely three weeks before the election.
Wells Fargo analysts note that on prediction and betting platforms, the former head of state is even more firmly in the lead than in traditional opinion surveys.
“A victory for Trump (in the White House and in Congress) should lead to a rise in rates,” they argue, referring to increased uncertainty regarding the foreign and trade policy of the United States “which would increase the volatility and would boost the dollar.
Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he was considering introducing “terrible” customs duties in the event of electoral success, to “bring back” businesses to the United States.
The prospect of new customs taxes “is not particularly favorable to the United States” and the dollar, says Marc Chandler, “but it is really bad for the others”, trading partner nations of the world’s largest economy.
“This is particularly the case for the closest countries”, such as Canada and especially Mexico, which justifies, according to the analyst, the fall of the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso in recent days.
Cours de mercredi Cours de mardi 18H40 GMT 21H00 GMT EUR/USD 1,0857 1,0893 EUR/JPY 162,59 162,53 EUR/CHF 0,9394 0,9386 EUR/GBP 0,8360 0,8331 USD/JPY 149,77 149,20 USD/CHF 0,8652 0,8617 GBP/USD 1,2987 1,3074
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