Lhe Europeans promise to be there in 2025 alongside Ukraine against Russia. But, in reality, they are more than ever caught in a vice between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The first pushes its advantage into the east of the country, where its troops are advancing, without being able to really break through. The second intends to end the conflict as soon as possible, even if he seems incapable of doing so in “twenty-four hours”as promised during his electoral campaign. Less than four weeks before the elected president takes office on January 20, 2025, nothing says that European capitals will be able to contain the shock of the return to power of the populist tribune, whom the Russian president has said he is ready for. , on December 19, to meet “at any time”.
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Certainly, European leaders are increasing the number of meetings in the most varied formats (European Union, NATO, Weimar triangle, Northern Europe, “Enlarged Quint” with the United States of Biden, etc.). They are committed to extending their support for kyiv, or even strengthening it in the event that the Republican president decides to reduce American military support in order to force his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, to sit at the negotiating table.
The stakes are crucial for the continent, almost three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine: the Twenty-Seven and their neighbors, like the United Kingdom or Norway, know that European security is more important than ever. by that of Ukraine. A Ukraine that is at least stabilized, if not victorious over Russia throughout its territory, at least free and democratic, closely or remotely attached to the European Union and NATO.
Remote hypothesis of a ceasefire
Evident in the states on the front line facing Moscow, such as Poland and the Baltic countries, this awareness has been affirmed over the course of the conflict, even in countries further away from the front, like France, or concerned, at the Like Germany, to avoid escalation with a power equipped with nuclear weapons. Beyond declarations of intent, European capitals have not yet found a way to increase their support for kyiv in order to take their destiny in hand. And, in the still distant hypothesis of a ceasefire, they differ on the question of the “security guarantees” to be offered to kyiv in order to prevent any new Russian offensive. Whether it's sending ground troops or an invitation to join NATO.
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