the essential
Russian President Vladimir Putin promised even more “destruction” to Ukraine this Sunday, December 22, after a drone attack the day before against buildings in a city in central Russia. Analysis of the Russian leader's intentions and speech with the expertise of Guillaume Ancel, former officer and war chronicler.
Volodymyr Zelensky has been demanding this from his allies almost since the start of the conflict: to have the right to strike Russian territory with the weapons they provide him. He obtained this authorization from the United States on November 17 when the imminent arrival of Donald Trump at the White House worried kyiv's supporters.
If the Ukrainian president is so insistent on this issue, it is because he knows the importance of being able to strike Russia directly on its soil. This morning of December 21, Ukrainian drones hit Russian infrastructure in the heart of the country. If, according to the authorities, no casualties have been reported among the Russian population, this strike nearly 1,000 kilometers from the border has left its mark.
Buildings were damaged, forcing the authorities to organize evacuations. Fires broke out in several districts of Kazan. “If earlier industrial enterprises were attacked, now the enemy attacks civilians in the morning, directly in their homes,” wrote Rustam Minnikhanov, leader of the republic of Tatarstan where the city is located.
Putin “ulcerated” by the Ukrainian response
In response, Vladimir Putin was particularly bellicose after this operation. “Anyone who attempts to destroy anything in our country, no matter how small, will face much greater destruction in their own country and will regret what they tried to do,” he said. he declared. For Guillaume Ancel, former officer and war chronicler via his blog Do Not Suffer, Putin “is ulcerated by the capacity that Ukraine now has to retaliate on Russian territory.” The Russian leader knows that this type of operation has “much more sensitive repercussions for his population”.
“The burning oil depots are driving up the price of gasoline, the affected arms factories are disrupting the entire missile production chain…” explains the military specialist. And now the Russian people are being affected even in their homes. More than anything, Putin seems to fear a rise in public opinion against the war.
“An acceleration” in the perspective of negotiations
This constant pressure maintained on Ukraine with a lot of threats, the former officer also analyzes it as “an acceleration before the end of the discussions with the team of [Donald] Trump because he wants an agreement as soon as he arrives, in 4 weeks.”
While the two countries seem to have to negotiate soon, “Putin knows that he no longer has the means to do more in Ukraine for a long time, his army has had to withdraw part of its logistics to escape long-term missile strikes. American scope. However, it is imperative for him to “appear as much in a position of strength as possible” as these potential negotiations approach.
This increasingly virulent and confident discourse is therefore probably not unrelated to this desire to appear in a favorable position. Especially since the message is also addressed to its population, who need to be reassured. Putin knows that he will likely have to answer to his people at the end of the conflict and will therefore have to present tangible results to justify the human and economic losses.
The advance of the Russian army in eastern Ukraine – with the capture of two new villages this December 22, bringing the total to 190 for 2024 – pursues the same goal: to conquer territories which become a bargaining chip and announce concrete results to the population.
