drivers of a new order in the Middle East

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Long dominated by Western powers, the Middle East is now seeing the emergence of new players who are redefining its geopolitical balances. Russia, China and Turkey are gradually emerging as key players, each bringing a unique approach to crisis management and seeking influence.

While Moscow relies on military force and pragmatic diplomacy, Beijing favors economic investments as part of its New Silk Road, and Ankara seeks to combine regional ambitions and strategic repositioning. These new dynamics are making international relations more complex in a constantly changing region.

Russia: from Syria to the entire Middle East
Russian military intervention in Syria in 2015 marked a turning point for Moscow's presence in the region. By supporting Bashar al-Assad, Russia has demonstrated its ability to directly influence the course of conflicts.

1. Consolidation of military influence : Russian bases in Syria, like that of Hmeimim, offer Moscow strategic access to the Eastern Mediterranean. This permanent presence allows it to play a key role in international negotiations.
2. Regional diplomacy : Russia has been able to exploit the disagreements between the United States and its regional allies to position itself as an essential mediator, particularly between Turkey, Iran and Israel.
3. Economic partnerships : Although less pronounced than those of China, trade with countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia strengthens Russian influence, particularly in the energy sector.

According to Al Quds (December 22, 2024), Moscow's strategy is based on a pragmatic approach that maximizes its interests without excessive commitments.

China: a discreet but influential economic player
Beijing is taking a very different approach, focused on economic opportunities and regional stability, rather than military intervention.

1. Infrastructure investments : With the New Silk Road, China is financing major projects in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These investments aim to secure trade corridors connecting Asia, Africa and Europe.
2. Strategic neutrality : China maintains balanced relations with all parties, avoiding aligning itself with a specific camp. This posture allows him to work with both Israel and the Palestinians.
3. Energy security : As the region's main oil importer, Beijing attaches great importance to the stability of the Persian Gulf to guarantee its supplies.

According to Al Arabi Al Jadid (December 22, 2024), this cautious but ambitious strategy consolidates China's place as a key partner, without provoking direct conflicts with other powers.

Turkey: between regional ambitions and strategic repositioning
Turkey, under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is adopting a more assertive approach, mixing military interventions and ideological ambitions.

1. Direct military presence : Ankara actively intervenes in Syria, Libya and Iraq to protect its strategic interests, particularly against Kurdish militias.
2. Support for Islamist movements : Turkey supports groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, which allows it to influence political dynamics in countries like Egypt and Tunisia.
3. Energy pivot : With projects like the TurkStream gas pipeline, Ankara is seeking to become an energy hub connecting the Middle East and Europe.

According to Al Sharq Al Awsat (December 22, 2024), this strategy, although ambitious, exposes Turkey to tensions with its neighbors and criticism from its traditional allies, particularly within NATO.

When collaboration and rivalry coexist
Relations between Russia, China and Turkey oscillate between cooperation and competition.

1. Multilateral collaboration : The three countries share a common interest in a multipolar world order and cooperate within organizations such as BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
2. Economic and strategic rivalries : In Syria, Russia and Turkey support opposing camps, while China's economic ambitions sometimes compete with those of Ankara in regions like North Africa.

According to Al Quds (December 22, 2024), these interactions reflect interests that are often aligned on certain issues, but divergent on others, making their cooperation complex and pragmatic.

Implications for the Middle East
The rise of these actors is profoundly transforming the region:

1. A relative weakening of the West : The United States and Europe are losing part of their traditional influence to the benefit of these new powers.
2. Economic opportunities : Chinese infrastructure projects and energy partnerships with Russia and Turkey offer development prospects for countries in the region.
3. Complexity of conflicts : The arrival of new actors makes the resolution of crises more difficult, with each power seeking to protect its own interests.

A new strategic chapter
Russia, China and Turkey are redrawing the geopolitical contours of the Middle East. These emerging powers, although divergent in their approaches, are helping to create a more complex and multipolar regional order. For states in the region, this opens up both opportunities and challenges, requiring them to navigate these ever-changing influences.

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