In a survey published on December 19, INSEE paints a portrait of demographic developments in the Île-de-France region. Between Paris and the other departments, the trends are far from being similar.
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“The trends observed in Seine-Saint-Denis and Paris are similar to previous years,” indicates INSEE Île-de-France to France 3 Paris Île-de-France. The capital sees its number of inhabitants drop by 12,800 inhabitants each year, a figure observed between 2016 and 2022. An almost identical number for the department of Seine Saint-Denis but in the opposite direction: the department sees its population grow of 12,500 inhabitants.
These developments are visible in an INSEE survey published on December 19. Every year, the institute conducts a survey in towns with more than 10,000 inhabitants. The other municipalities are surveyed every five years. At the end of this cycle (2016-2022), INSEE explains that it has information on “40% of French households”. A rate sufficient to deliver its estimates on demographic trends.
“Among the ten most populous municipalities in France, Paris is the only one which is not experiencing demographic growth“, underlines INSEE Île-de-France. Each year, between 2016 and 2022, around 26,000 people (- 1.18%) leave the capital with more than 2 million inhabitants. A figure similar to that calculated for the period 2011-2016 (- 1.22%).
“The cost of housing, the arrival of a child or the search for another living environment” are the reasons which explain this drop according to INSEE Île-de-France. The institute specifies that net migration, that is to say the difference between those who leave and those who stay, is positive for 20-29 year olds but becomes negative for all other age categories. “Young Parisian parents tend to come and settle in the inner and outer suburbs.
Its natural balance, that is to say the number of births in relation to the number of deaths, (+ 0.59% per year) is not enough to fill these departures. Paris is also the only Ile-de-France department which is losing inhabitants (-0.59%).
The other Ile-de-France departments are therefore seeing their populations grow. But of all, Seine-Saint-Denis is the one which is experiencing the strongest annual growth (+ 0.76%), down slightly compared to the period 2011-2016 (+ 0.98%).
The most populated department after Paris (1,168,725 inhabitants in 1is January 2022) has the highest natural balance in the region with a surplus of 19,000 (+ 1.1% per year). Meanwhile, its migratory balance (-0.38%) remains low even though it is the second lowest in the region after Paris.
“The average age at maternity is higher in Paris than in Seine-Saint-Denis”, underlines INSEE Île-de-France which specifies that “the number of children per woman is on average 1.25 in the capital compared to 2 in the 93”. Figures to be compared with the youth of the population. In 2021, 42.4% of Sequano-Dionysians were under 30 years old compared to 37.3% in Paris, again according to INSEE.
“Overall, we have been witnessing a phenomenon of decentering vis-à-vis Paris for several years,” continues INSEE Île-de-France. The other departments have annual migration balances that are far removed (between +0.02% and -0.38%) from that of the capital.
Only Seine-et-Marne sees fewer residents leaving its territory than people staying there (+ 0.02%). For good reason, this department “benefits from a significant new construction dynamic”, notes INSEE.
The demographic growth of Île-de-France amounts to 44,000 new inhabitants per year (+ 0.36%) and remains similar to that of France (+ 0.35%). With 12,380,964 inhabitants in 1is January 2022, the Ile-de-France region represents 18% of the French population.
Between the country and the region, the growth factors are opposite. Each year, between 2011 and 2016, Île-de-France displays a strong excess of births over deaths (+ 0.77%). Almost five times the national rate (+ 0.16%). But France attracts more inhabitants than it sees leave (+ 0.19%). A very different reality in Île-de-France which displays a negative migration balance of 26,000 inhabitants per year (-0.41%).
