Oil prices recovered on Friday thanks to a weakening of the dollar linked to an American indicator, but remain handicapped by fundamentals which promise to be unfavorable next year. The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in February increased 0.08% to $72.94. A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of the same maturity rose 0.11% to $69.46.
For Bart Melek of TD Securities, this improvement, after Thursday's decline, is mainly due to the weakening of the dollar, which itself reacted to a better-than-expected American inflation indicator. The PCE consumer price index increased by only 0.1% in November over one month, less than the previous month (0.2%) and the figure projected by economists (+0.2 % also). This figure took the market by surprise, which has been worried, for several months, about the resistance of inflation in the United States. Bond yields reacted and the rate on 10-year US government bonds eased to 4.51%, compared to 4.56% the day before at closing, which put pressure on the «greenback»one of the nicknames for the motto of the United States.
“Not very good” fundamentals
However, black gold was only entitled to a “very small movement”emphasizes Bart Melek, car “the fundamentals are still not very good”. At the beginning of December, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its demand forecasts for 2025 downward, for the fifth consecutive month. Prices reacted little to statements by President-elect Donald Trump, who demanded that the European Union buy more American oil and gas to reduce its trade surplus with the United States, or face new tariffs. .
“Donald Trump is doing his best to prevent the fossil fuel market from functioning efficiently”commented, in a note, Darren Nathan, of Hargreaves Lansdown. Exports of American crude to the Netherlands, the most important receiving point in Europe, have tripled in ten years and are currently at a record level. There is greater room for maneuver on the natural gas side. At the beginning of November, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, had already raised the idea of replacing part of Russian supplies with American gas, the price of which is very attractive.
