During the congress of the Association of semolina Europeans at the European stock market from Paris, the Italian analysis firm arete presented its forecasts for theglobal supply and demand on the upcoming campaign. According to Carlotta De Pasquale, analyst for Areté, the production world of durum wheat is expected to decline among the main exporters. In theEuropean Unionthe decline in surfaces and the drought underway in the south ofItaly could lead to a 1% decline in production in 2025. In North America, the reduced price gap between durum and soft wheat should lead to a drop in surface area Canada and to UNITED STATES. The analyst therefore expects a 4% decline in durum wheat production in the two countries. In Türkiyeseveral regions are exposed to water stress. « Surface areas and production should decline in 2025-2026 in Türkiye, but remain at historically high levels. The high level of prices on the Turkish domestic market supports the semis » explained Carlotta De Pasquale. At Mexicosurface areas could decline by 17% in 2025-2026, due to problems linked to water resources, which should bring the forecast drop in production to 16%. “ The level of world production will strongly depend on the harvest in North Africawhich we currently expect to increase by 13% year-on-year if yields bounce ” warns Carlotta De Pasquale.
« The level of global production will depend heavily on the harvest in North Africa, which we currently forecast to increase by 13% year-on-year » Carlotta De Pasquale, market analyst at Areté
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Less presence of Turkey on the European market
After a 2023-2024 campaign where it dominated the European Union market, Turkey’s withdrawal is already being felt in the current campaign. “ The pace of exports is down in the first months of 2024-2025 despite the increase in production » recalled the Areté analyst. The strengthening of the lira against the euro and strong demand on the domestic market have brought the turkish prices European prices. THE Canadian exports have taken off in recent weeks and Turkish origin arouses less interest.
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Turkish domestic market in high demand for durum wheat
During the first months of the campaign, the Turkish exports of pasta based on soft wheat and durum wheat have progressed to approach average pre-Covid levels. The Turkish market, however, has abundant stocks de report dating from the previous campaign. As evidenced by the recent tender of TMOthe Turkish grain office, covering the 2023 harvest. Turkish pastiers are pushing for an end to the ban on durum wheat importsbut it is not certain that it will be lifted before these stocks have been consumed » reveals Carlotta De Pasquale.
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The small price gap with soft wheat limits the fall in prices
For Areté, the macroeconomic context is not as buoyant as it was a few years ago. THE interest rate could be further lowered by central banks. THE production costs remain high even if the fertilizer prices have retreated from the current campaign. But in most producing countries, the price gap between durum and soft wheat has narrowed considerably. Price drops were more pronounced for durum wheat than for soft wheat. “ THE price of durum wheat in Bologna have even fallen below those of soft wheat at the start of 2024 » points out the analyst. This is the case in Italy, France, Spain, but also in North America, which should penalize durum wheat sowing for the 2025 harvest.
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