COTidienne | Oilseeds – Fall in rapeseed and soybean prices on world markets

THE prix of the main soybean futures contracts lost ground again this Tuesday, October 15, 2024 on the CBOT. The drop applies to all maturities with a return to a level close to $990 cents/bushel for the November maturity. Same fold in rapeseed on Euronextalso for all deadlines. The three closest terms fell below €500/t. Note that the May deadline is the second most processed deadline behind the February deadline. On the markets physical hexagonal, rapeseed prices also fell, approaching €490/t for delivery Rouen and FOB Moselle.

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Global markets for military have integrated on the one hand the USDA harvest report, published on October 15, which shows good progress in the work in this area, and on the other hand the first estimates from the Brazilian Conab on the domestic campaign (see fundamentals ), with an increase in surface areas, production and exports. Anec (association of Brazilian exporters) also revised its export forecasts upwards for the month of October. The rains have finally arrived significantly in Latin America. The session on CBOT, where funds were selling, was driven by technical sales. Furthermore, the American crushing professionals association (Nopa) announced a record crushing volume for the month of September. Soybean meal prices were trending downward and soybean oil prices trending upward on the CBOT.

The quotes of canola canadian resumed this Tuesday in Winnipeg, after a public holiday, trending downward, under pressure from the soybean market and a falling Canadian dollar.

The courses of rapeseed fell under the effect of profit taking and technical sales. Agreste, in France, has revised its 2024 production forecast downwards.

The courses of theoil of palms Malaysian companies suffered some profit taking, following the evolution of oils listed in China. The sharp decline in oil prices also affected prices. Despite this, we note a good dynamic in exports for the first fortnight of October with an easing of the ringgit on the foreign exchange market.

Side sunflowerprices on world markets continue to rise. In France, the difficulty in harvesting continues (the phenomenon of lodging on what is still standing, humidity problem, problem of access to plots, etc.). According to some observers, the harvest delay is reaching historic proportions.

Side meteorologyTHE precipitation will calm down over the current and upcoming week in Western Europe but will remain important in France and in Spain. It will be drier in Germany and in Poland. And zone Black Seathe precipitation will spare theUkraine but will focus on the Russia.
In France, the departments of Alpes-Maritimes, Ardèche, Gard, Lozère and Var are on orange alert for thunderstormsrain and floods this Wednesday, the alert continuing on October 16 for Ardèche, Gard and Lozère.

Due to the droughtthe number of ship passages in the Panama Canal fell 29% last year compared to the previous year, according to the annual report of the canal management authority: 9,944 ships passed through the canal in 2024 compared to 14,080 in 2023; 423 Mt of goods transited against 511 Mt.

The courses of oil returned on Tuesday “to their level before the Iranian missile attack on Israel, the market no longer believing in a major escalation between the two countries”, according to AFP. There euro-dollar parity stood at $1.089 against $1.091 the day before.

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Fundamentals:

• France, rapeseed, production : estimate of 3.85 Mt in September for 2024-2025, compared to 4.3 Mt in 2023-2024 and + 1.9% above the five-year average (source: Agreste);
• Brazil, soy, surface : up 2.8% in 2024-2025 compared to last year (source: Conab);
• Brazil, soy, production : estimated at 166.05 Mt in 2024-2025, or +12.7% compared to the previous campaign (source: Conab);
• United States, soya, crushing : 177.32 million bushels in September, a record (source: Nopa);
• United States, soy, harvest : 67% achieved as of October 13 compared to 47% the previous week and 51% on a five-year average (source: USDA);
• United States, sunflower, harvest : achieved at 14% as of October 13 compared to 4% as of October 6 and 16% on a five-year average (source: USDA).

Commerce international :

• United States, soy, export inspections : for the week ending October 10, 2024, 1,575,467 t, within analyst expectations (source: USDA);
• United States, soybeans, export sales : 131,000 t to China, for delivery during the 2024-2025 campaign (source: USDA);
• Brazil, soy, exports : estimated at 105.54 Mt for the 2024-2025 campaign (source: Conab);

• Brazil, soy, exports : 4.34 Mt in October compared to 4.12 Mt in a previous estimate (source: Anec).

French physical markets from October 15, 2024 (July base for cereals)

Commercial quotations for dairy products from October 10, 2024

Dollar/euro evolution of October 15, 2024

Chicago Futures Market Close October 15, 2024

Closing of the Euronext futures market on October 15, 2024

International market quotes from October 15, 2024