EU: CJEU verdict, an opportunity for China and Russia?

The European Union’s recent court ruling on trade deals between Morocco and the EU could inadvertently bring the Kingdom closer to Russia and China, potentially harming Western interests in the region. he from a recent analysis by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP).

“Rendered on October 4, 2024, the decision of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) annuls the trade agreements between the EU and Morocco on fishing and agricultural products because they include Sahara, a region considered by the United States to be Moroccan territory,” underlines the think tank, based in Washington.

Entitled “EU-Morocco relations: between law and politics”, the study indicates that this decision imposes legal obligations on the EU which could contradict the increasingly close political and economic ties that many member states have established with the Morocco. This is the case of Spain and France who have brought their positions on the Sahara closer to that of Rabat, thus reinforcing the growing European support for the Kingdom’s 2007 proposal which would grant autonomy to the region under Moroccan sovereignty.

Despite the CJEU’s decision, European leaders rushed to reassure Morocco of their continued support. “The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the former High Representative, Josep Borrell, jointly declared that “the EU has the firm intention of preserving and continuing to strengthen close relations… in all the areas of the Morocco-EU partnership”, underlines the analysis, signed by Souhire Medini, visiting researcher at the Washington Institute.

Two weeks later, senior officials of the European Council even unanimously reaffirmed the “great value that the European Union attaches to its strategic partnership with Morocco”.

“This show of support partly explains Rabat’s measured reaction to the decision, with the Moroccan Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaring that the Kingdom “does not consider itself in any way affected by the decision”,” writes the study published on the 8th of the month fluent.

“On the other hand, when the Court of Justice of the European Union annulled a free trade agreement with Morocco in 2016 for reasons similar to those put forward by the CJEU, Rabat suspended its diplomatic relations with the EU. This latest reaction testifies to the Kingdom’s confidence in the fact that its diplomacy has scored important points on the Sahara issue since then,” adds the same source.

The analysis further highlights that Moscow and Beijing have discreetly extended their interests in Morocco, particularly in the Sahara by investing in the coastal fishing sector.

“For example, Russia recently renewed a four-year fishing agreement with Rabat, while China will likely increase its presence on Moroccan coasts based on its 2023 maritime fisheries memorandum of understanding. Beijing is seeking also to invest in green hydrogen projects in the Sahara, by signing a memorandum of cooperation in 2023 with the Moroccan company Gaia Energy Company and the Saudi company Ajnan Brothers,” recalls the analysis.

It also addresses the potential impact of former US President Donald Trump’s return to power, suggesting it could lead to increased US investment in the Sahara.

Still, she continues, “Rabat will likely do everything it can to work with all partners – including China – who are ready to advance sectors, including green hydrogen.”