Federal Election 2025: Seats at stake in Manitoba

Although Manitoba is not nationally decisive, five seats are at stake in the province in the 2025 federal election. With the imminent resignation of Justin Trudeau and the prorogation of Parliament, the parties are preparing for a fierce fight for these seats, each with important issues to defend.

For Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party, which is in a good position to win its first majority since the 2011 election, succeeding in Manitoba this spring will mean adding two or three seats to the seven the party already holds in the province.

For the Liberals, who will be led by a new person in the next election, this is a fight to save the furniture, where the party will be content to retain as many seats as possible. Success for the Liberals in Manitoba this year means keeping one or two of their four seats.

For the New Democrats, succeeding in this province will mean retaining the three seats they currently hold in Manitoba and at least remaining competitive in Winnipeg North.

Possible changes

Winnipeg-Sud: a real indicator, having always voted for the party that won the most seats since 1988. Currently, with the dominance of the Conservatives in the polls, this complicates the re-election of Liberal MP Terry Duguid. Although the Conservatives have not yet nominated a candidate, any contender with blue signs should be taken seriously.

Saint-Boniface-Saint-Vital : Although another control seat, this riding is less volatile than Winnipeg South. Since 1988, it has been won twice by a Liberal, but the chances for a Liberal this year are reduced due to the retirement of MP Dan Vandal. The conservative candidate will probably have a good chance of winning.

Elmwood-East Kildonan : Even if this constituency is historically dominated by the NPDits slight redistribution favors the conservatives. Incumbent Liberal MP Leila Dance will once again face Conservative Colin Reynolds.

Winnipeg-Centre-Sud : Despite the decline in Liberal support, this riding remains a stronghold for the Liberal Party. MP Ben Carr is facing conservative candidate Royden Brousseau this year.

Winnipeg-Nord : A collapse in Liberal support nationally could threaten Kevin Lamoureux’s re-election. Although the NPDwhich does not yet have a candidate, dominated this seat before 2010, the Conservatives, with their candidate Rachel Punzalan, could be more competitive this year.

However, the Manitoban saying never bet against a Lamoureux remains relevant, because Lamoureux managed to keep his seat in 2011, despite the national Liberal debacle.

Name change

Mont-Riding : The new riding extends to the southeast and includes the Municipality of Norfolk Treherne, Long Plain First Nation, Dakota Plains First Nation and some small parcels of the Rural Municipality of Portage la Prairie.

Conservative MP Dan Mazier is not expected to face a significant challenge in this very conservative riding.

Winnipeg West : What was previously known by the impractical name Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley will soon be called Winnipeg West. In addition to the name change, this riding will expand its boundaries, welcoming voters from the RM of Rosser and residents of Tuxedo in Winnipeg.

Conservative Marty Morantz has represented this moderately conservative riding since 2019. Former Liberal MP Doug Eyolfson, who also lost to Morantz in 2021, will once again try to take back the riding for his party.

Brandon-Mouse : Conservative MP Larry Maguire will try to win his fifth election in this southwestern Manitoba riding, which conservative parties have won 25 times in the last 26 elections.

Churchill-Kewatinook Ask : NDP MP Niki Ashton will seek to win her sixth election in Manitoba’s northernmost riding, which NPD has won 12 times in the last 15 elections.

Kildonan-St. Paul : Conservative MP Raquel Dancho is seeking her third victory in this Winnipeg-area riding, which has voted Conservative six times in the last seven elections.

Portage-Interlake : Conservative MP Branden Leslie will try to win his second election in this south-central Manitoba riding, which has never elected a candidate other than Conservatives.

Provencher : Conservative MP Ted Falk will try to win his fifth election in this southeastern Manitoba riding, which has voted for Conservative candidates 16 times in the last 18 elections.

Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman : Conservative MP James Bezan is seeking his ninth victory in this central Manitoba riding, which has only elected Conservative candidates since it was reconstituted in 1997.

Winnipeg-Centre : NDP MP Leah Gazan will attempt to win her third election in this downtown Winnipeg riding, which voted NPD eight times in the nine elections since its reform in 1997.

With information from Bartley Kives