The Earth exceeds the threshold of 1.5°C: “We are not doing enough”, deplores an expert

The year 2024 broke a sad record with an average global warming of 1.6°C, becoming the hottest year on record since the pre-industrial era. These data, revealed Thursday by several agencies responsible for measuring global surface temperatures, are considered ever more worrying by experts.

The symbolic threshold of 1.5°C, which was set in 2015 by the Paris Agreement as a limit not to be exceeded, was already considered in 2023 as unattainable by scientists.

When it is crossed for the first time, scientists want more than ever to sound the alarm. They once again urge governments to act urgently to limit the already clearly visible consequences of global warming.

In an interview with -, the general director of the Ouranos consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change, Alain Bourque, explains to us what these new data imply for the future of the planet.

How did we exceed the 1.5°C threshold?

Climate change continues to accelerate. For 2024, however, it must be said that the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean has contributed to the increase in temperatures. This natural oceanic process, which appears every two to seven years, provided an additional breath of warm air to the atmosphere. It is therefore the combination of these factors which caused the 1.5°C threshold to be exceeded more quickly than expected.

In 2023, however, scientists had anticipated that we would record temperatures seriously approaching 1.5°C by 2025. This is therefore not really a surprise.

Have we reached a point of no return when it comes to global warming? Should we be worried?

Yes. You only need to look at the news from around the world to understand that we need to be seriously concerned.

Scientific studies continue to accumulate to demonstrate the acceleration of global warming throughout the planet with the scale of forest fires and floods, the risk of runaway ocean currents, the degradation of permafrost in the regions. northern regions and the melting of glaciers, in Greenland and Antarctica.

All this data is accumulating and painting an increasingly worrying picture of what is happening.

Why did the Paris Agreement set this limit at 1.5°C?

When we talk about an average of 1.5°C, we assume that it covers 20 years. The Paris Agreement aimed to limit global warming to below 2°C (and, if possible, to 1.5°C). He predicted that we would reach it in 2035 and we have already reached it, although the year 2024 is not completely representative because of the contribution of El Niño.

This is still worrying since it also means that the predictions for 2035 are perhaps underestimated and that the climate is warming faster than expected. This concern should justify additional efforts to try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and try to control the extent of climate change.

Is the objective of limiting this acceleration in the long term still achievable?

Yes, it is achievable. We can succeed in limiting the extent of climate change. A scientific study published last spring, which brings together several laboratories, demonstrates that we could succeed in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but that we would more likely reach a plateau of 2.5°C of global warming ( rather than a threshold of 2°C).

What would this mean for Quebec?

An increase of 2.5°C on a global scale means an increase of 5°C for southern Quebec, since warming in this region is doubled. For the Arctic regions, we multiply by three, which would lead to a warming of 5°C.

In Quebec, however, we have an improving trajectory compared to the scenario of approximately 15 years ago due to public policies put in place to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, we are not doing enough. We will have to learn to manage the risks linked to extreme weather events which are occurring more and more in Quebec and Canada.

Why is the temperature difference greater in Canada?

The threshold of 1.5°C remains an average calculated for the planet. Since 75% of the globe is covered by oceans, they reduce the amount of atmospheric warming by absorbing a large amount of heat. We must therefore understand that 93% of the energy accumulated due to climate change is absorbed by the oceans and that it is the remaining 7% which causes warming of 1.5°C.

For continental regions, as there is less water to absorb the warming, temperatures are therefore higher, but the takeaway from all this data is that the climate is warming faster and faster and there is an emergency.

With information from Midi info