The number of workers in the region is expected to fall by 11% by 2050, according to an INSEE study published on December 5. Burgundy-Franche-Comté would be one of the three territories recording the most marked decrease. In question? A rate of seniors higher than the national average.
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This is an issue that political figures in the region will have to consider in the years to come. According to a study published on December 5 by INSEE, the number of workers present in the region is expected to drop by 11% by 2050. The number of Burgundians-Francs-Comtois aged 14 to 70 years old on the labor market would increase from 1.27 million to 1.12 million.
But all is not lost. In its predictions, INSEE presents two other scenarios in which the region would lose fewer workers by 2050. The organization specifies that careers should be lengthened and apprenticeships increased. The reduction would, in this case, only be 8%. Other possibilities are also being considered, as you can see in this graphic.
There is one reason for this drop in the number of workers: regional demographics. Burgundy-Franche-Comté is the fourth oldest territory in France. It has 105 inhabitants aged 65 or over for every 100 young people aged 20 or under. By 2050, the working population is also likely to age further.
Around 35,000 additional workers are expected to be aged 60 or over. This trend could, however, be partially offset by the arrival of young graduates in the region. In 2021, for example, 47,500 people moved to Burgundy-Franche-Comté. The average age of these new arrivals is younger than that of the residents already present (36 compared to 44 years).
INSEE nevertheless considers that this will not be enough to counter this demographic problem.
But then, why is this decline in the number of workers a problem? For one major reason: it will lead to a labor shortage in several key sectors. Skilled workers and intermediate professions in the civil service will be the most affected, with a drop of 34% and 32% respectively.
Training in this sector will have to be crucial.
Another category of workers should also face a labor shortage: home helpers. This profession will be even more essential with the progressive aging of the population. INSEE thus underlines that “Training in this sector will have to be crucial, especially since this shortage risks forcing companies to abandon certain markets.”
On the other hand, not all territories will be affected by this shortage. Three employment zones out of the 21 in the region would even see their rate of active people stabilize: Dijon, Besançon and their metropolises, as well as the territory of Pontarlier, in Doubs. According to the organization, these areas still benefit from “residential attractiveness” (people therefore continue to settle there).
Conversely, Nièvre, the south of Yonne and Saône-et-Loire will experience the largest drop in the number of workers. Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire, for example, will lose 20% of its active population by 2050.
To counter this demographic problem, solutions have already been put in place. In November 2023, the newspaper 20 Minutes reported, for example, that Nièvre was offering a week of free vacation to encourage vacationers to settle there permanently. Candidates are supported in their search for employment, housing, school or in putting together a business takeover file.
Le Creusot, for its part, has decided to focus its development on several priorities: ecological transition, social and territorial cohesion, as well as economic development, while promoting the territory's assets on social networks.
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