Leave or stay? Justin Trudeau’s options

(Ottawa) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is weighing his options since the resounding resignation of Chrystia Freeland from her post as Minister of Finance. So far, he has given few clues about his intentions.

Over the past few days, he has spent many hours on the phone. He told certain ministers that he was thinking about his future and the dramatic events that have occurred since Monday.

Will he resign, as several of his deputies are demanding? On the contrary, will he cling to power despite the growing discontent? In the federal capital, bets are on.

What options are available to him to calm the storm? Here are some he could weigh as he prepares a reshuffle to replace nine ministers who have left the cabinet or do not plan to run in the next election. This reshuffle could occur on Friday.

Justin Trudeau decides to stay in office

Although more Liberal MPs demanded he step down following Chrystia Freeland’s resignation on Monday, there is no mechanism within the caucus or the Liberal Party of Canada to fire the leader. About twenty dissident MPs tried to force his hand by signing a letter demanding his departure in October, but Mr. Trudeau took less than 24 hours to inform them that he had the firm intention of leading the Liberal troops during the next campaign.

The mutineers could, however, put more pressure on the prime minister by choosing to sit as independent MPs in the Commons and threaten to vote against the government – ​​an idea only one of them has mentioned so far. But if he remains in office, the opposition parties will certainly try to bring about the fall of the government by voting against the federal budget, for example, or by adopting a motion of censure.

Furthermore, if he decides to stay in office, ministers wishing to replace him at the helm of the Liberal Party could become impatient in setting up their organizations for a leadership campaign. Many believe that Chrystia Freeland kicked off her campaign by issuing a strong resignation letter on Monday and specifying that she would run again in the next election.

Justin Trudeau calls for prorogation of Parliament and leaves office

The pressure could be unbearable for Justin Trudeau following the debacle that led to the departure of Chrystia Freeland. He could announce his immediate resignation and ask the Governor General to extend the parliamentary session to allow his party to choose a new leader in a calmer context. Federal elections must take place no later than October 2025. The extension may last a few hours or a few months. During this period, the House of Commons and the Senate are not in session. The Constitution requires that Parliament meet at least once every 12 months.

Typically, a leadership race lasts three to six months. However, given the tight timetable before the next election, MPs could be asked to choose an interim leader by a caucus vote which would be ratified later by party supporters. By opting for prorogation, Justin Trudeau would ensure that the opposition parties cannot overthrow the Liberal government while the new prime minister settles into power. In principle, the House of Commons is due to resume its work on January 27.

Justin Trudeau requests extension and announces his intention to resign

Nothing would prevent Justin Trudeau from requesting the extension and announcing that he would resign as soon as the party’s supporters had elected a new leader. In the meantime, he would serve as prime minister and party leader. This is the option chosen by former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. At the time, he had the luxury of leading a majority government when he announced in February 1993 that he would leave office after a leadership contest that culminated in a convention in June of that same year. year. Former Justice Minister Kim Campbell was elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. She later led her party to a historic defeat.

Justin Trudeau resigns, but without requesting the prorogation of Parliament

This option is very risky. Nothing would stop the opposition parties from joining forces to topple Justin Trudeau’s minority government while the Liberal Party is busy organizing a leadership race. The Conservative Party and the Bloc Québécois are also calling for federal elections as soon as possible to allow Canadians to choose a government capable of countering the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs. The NDP is calling for the resignation of Justin Trudeau and, for the first time, the party’s parliamentary leader in the Commons, Peter Julian, has indicated that the NDP intends to support a motion of censure if Justin Trudeau does not bow out “by February or March.”