The forecasts of theOECD for the Kingdom of Morocco were published during this month of December as part of the publication of OECD economic forecasts. “This shows the importance of Morocco for the organization, being one of the rare African countries to have these closely followed economic forecasts,” declares Ahmed Khalid Benomar, OECD project manager at the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Morocco is now one of the countries covered by these forecasts, reserved in detail for OECD member countries and major world economies. Which shows the importance of Morocco for the organization, being one of the rare African countries to have these closely followed economic forecasts.
An economic engine in full transformation
The latest OECD forecasts confirm the positive dynamics of the Moroccan economy. According to the organization in its latest Focus on Morocco, “Morocco Economy at a Glance”, real GDP growth is expected to reach 4.1% in 2025 before stabilizing at 3.8% in 2026. This performance is based on several key drivers, starting with household consumption: “Despite the current drought, the increase in private consumption should accelerate, driven by the increase in real incomes,” indicates the document. The year 2026 is expected to be supported by increasing incomes, expanding social assistance programs and the expected recovery of agricultural production after several years of drought.
Investment constitutes another major growth lever. “Investments aimed at improving the country’s structuring and hydraulic infrastructure, as well as new investment incentives, should promote the formation of public and private capital,” underlines Ahmed Khalid Benomar. It should be remembered that Morocco is focusing in particular on the development of renewable energies, with the ambitious objective of increasing their share to 52% of the electricity mix by 2030.
Another strategic sector, the automobile industry continues to gain momentum. With production expected to reach 700,000 vehicles, the sector will significantly support Moroccan exports, underlines Ahmed Khalid Benomar. Morocco has established itself as a competitive industrial platform, attracting global giants like Renault, Stellantis and Boeing. Tourism, a traditional heavyweight in the Moroccan economy, is also showing good momentum. The country welcomed a record number of 14.6 million visitors in 2023, confirming its attractiveness and the relevance of its tourism strategy.
Ambitious economic reforms
To support this growth dynamic, Morocco has undertaken major structural reforms. The OECD report highlights several key measures, starting with the gradual reduction of subsidies, particularly on butane gas. This courageous decision aims to rationalize public spending while providing room for maneuver to finance the expansion of social programs. On the monetary level, Morocco is moving towards a more flexible policy. “Monetary policy should continue to be relaxed, while closely monitoring price developments during the process of reducing subsidies,” indicated the OECD focus.
The government is expected to implement its fiscal program by 2027, which involves modest tightening, and strengthen the fiscal rule as well as the public finance framework. “The reforms undertaken strengthen Morocco’s visibility on the international economic scene,” insists Ahmed Khalid Benomar. In fact, the Kingdom has had detailed economic forecasts from the OECD since 2023, a privilege hitherto reserved for member countries of the organization and the main world economies. This recognition demonstrates the growing importance of Morocco in the eyes of international economic decision-makers.
Challenges to overcome
While Morocco’s economic outlook is generally favorable, the Kingdom nevertheless faces persistent challenges. The drought that has been raging for several years is weighing on the performance of the agricultural sector, which represents nearly 14% of GDP and employs more than 30% of the active population. In the first half of 2024, agricultural value added fell by 4%, affecting the income of rural households. Externally, Morocco remains exposed to fluctuations in the international situation. A more marked slowdown than expected in growth in the euro zone, the Kingdom’s main trading partner, could thus slow down Moroccan exports. Likewise, a new surge in global prices for energy and food products would revive inflationary pressures and weigh on household purchasing power. Despite these hazards, Morocco is approaching the economic future with confidence and determination. As Ahmed Khalid Benomar summarizes, “Morocco’s resilience and its ambitious reforms allow it to position itself as a key player among the emerging economies monitored by the OECD.”
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