Despite political uncertainty in France and fears in the housing sector, mortgage rates fell further at the beginning of December. “It took almost a year and a half to find real estate credit conditions where no average rate exceeds 3.50%”greets the Cafpi broker. The average rates charged are 3.22% over 15 years, 3.33% over 20 years and 3.47% over 25 years. “In this situation, the prospect of a rate of 3% at the start of 2025 becomes realistic”estimates the same source. In addition to attractive credit conditions, borrowers can benefit from the drop in prices (-2.1% over 1 year as of November 1) which concerns the entire territory. According to Cafpi, « e Between November 2023 and November 2024, borrowers can acquire an additional 11.43 m² in Nantes, an additional 9.66 m² in Toulouse and 9.01 m² in Reims. Even in Paris, it is now possible to buy 3.04 m² more than a year ago. »
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Competitor Emprutis shares the analysis. “Interest rates continue to fall, still providing a favorable outlook for borrowers. » The scales received this month reveal a reduction in rates ranging between 5 and 15 basis points on average. “Banks, keen to achieve their production targets for 2025, are deploying bold strategies to stimulate the granting of real estate loans. This dynamic is manifested in particular by the persistence of significant discounts on the rates offered to borrowers, explains Nassima Khiari, head of banking relations at Groupe Empruntis. Some establishments even go further by offering zero-rate envelopes specifically intended for first-time buyers. »
“Let’s hope it lasts!” »
The Vousfinancer broker is on the same wavelength: “Some establishments apply reductions especially for the best profiles with the highest incomes who now benefit from very attractive rates in certain banks, close to 3%. » Average rates in December are down 0.05 points to 3.15% over 15 years, 3.35% over 20 years and 3.55% over 25 years, with lower rates negotiated at 3.1%. over 15 years, 3.15% over 20 years and 3.3% over 25 years.
Above all, the borrowing capacity of households increased by more than €20,000 in 2024 for a monthly payment of €1,500 over 20 years. For a loan of €300,000 over 20 years, the monthly payment to repay it has fallen by €150, reducing the salary necessary to borrow them – respecting the rule of 33% debt, excluding insurance – by €450 (from 5,650 to €5,200 per month) and thus mechanically broadening the base of potential borrowers. “Let’s hope it lasts!” » concludes Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for Vousfinancer.
Will government censorship reshuffle the cards, especially if France's borrowing rates increase? The 10-year government bond rates (OAT tec 10) rose from 3% at the beginning of June to 3.30% at the end of the first round of legislative elections, before falling to less than 3% at the beginning of August. The next ECB meeting will take place on December 12.
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